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Tropical depression likely to form in Gulf Thursday night or Friday

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June 16

7 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now says “a tropical depression is likely to form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico.”

Even if a tropical depression does not form on Thursday, it is possible we will get our first forecast cone for the potential storm. The National Hurricane Center will issue forecasts for a developing system that is expected to become a tropical depression or storm if it is within 48 hours from making landfall.

June 16

1 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center is maintaining the 70% chance for development over the next 2 days of the system in the Bay of Campeche. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the system on Thursday, especially if it begins to show signs of organization. Once a closed low level circulation with thunderstorms surrounding it is located, the system will be designated a tropical depression or storm. Please keep up with the latest since the forecast could change quickly.

June 16

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7 a.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now gives the tropical low in the Gulf a 70% chance of developing over the next 2 days and a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 5 days.

The potential formation zone extends northward toward the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. Heavy rains could reach the U.S. Gulf Coast as early as Friday.

Impacts here are still “to be determined” based on the exact track the low takes. Once a well-defined low level circulation spins up, we should have a better idea of where it will track and what impacts we’ll get here.

June 15

11:00 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now gives the tropical low in the Gulf a 50% chance of developing over the next 2 days and an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 5 days.

June 15

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12:30 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now gives the tropical low in the Gulf an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.

June 15

7 a.m. update
The National Hurricane Center gives the tropical low in the Gulf a high (70%) chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.

June 14

9:45 p.m. update
Tropical Storm Bill has formed off the East Coast. It is no threat to land.

June 14

2 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now gives the tropical low in the Gulf a high (70%) chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.

The potential formation zone has been extended northward toward the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. Heavy rains could reach the U.S. Gulf Coast as early as Friday.

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Impacts here are still “to be determined” based on the exact track the low takes. Once a well-defined low level circulation spins up, we should have a better idea of where it will track and what impacts we’ll get here.

June 14

11 a.m. update
Tropical Depression Two forms off the coast of North Carolina. Additional strengthening is expected and this could become Tropical Storm Bill later tonight. This system should begin to weaken by Tuesday night and is expected to dissipate on Wednesday.

8 a.m. update
We continue to monitor a tropical low in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to meander around the Bay of Campeche for the first half of the week, then lift northward toward the U.S. Gulf Coast during the second half of the week. The National Hurricane Center keeps the 5-day developments odds at 60% through Saturday evening.

At this time it is still too soon to determine exactly how we will be impacted by it, but if we get any impacts, they will most likely be felt in the Friday to Sunday window of Father’s Day weekend. A tropical depression or storm could form, but a hurricane looks unlikely given the high wind shear expected over the northwestern Gulf.

If it tracks toward Louisiana or farther east, we would be left with hot, dry weather. If it tracks toward the Upper Texas Coast or farther west, we could see some significant rains from it. Once we see where the low pressure consolidates and becomes more organized, then we will get a better feel for where it will track and what our impacts will be.

For now we advise you to stay in awareness mode as the week progresses.

There are two other areas the National Hurricane Center has tagged for tropical development. An area of low pressure off the East Coast has a 70% chance for tropical development during the next 48 hours. This system will be competing to grab the next name on the Atlantic hurricane list: Bill.

A strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa has a 20% chance of tropical development during the next 5 days.

June 13

7 p.m. update
We continue to monitor a tropical low in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to meander around the Bay of Campeche for the first half of the week, then lift northward toward the U.S. Gulf Coast during the second half of the week. The National Hurricane Center keeps the 5-day developments odds at 50% through Friday evening.

At this time it is still too soon to determine exactly how we will be impacted by it, but if we get any impacts, they will most likely be felt in the Friday to Sunday window of Father’s Day weekend. A tropical depression or storm could form, but a hurricane looks unlikely given the high wind shear expected over the northwestern Gulf. The next name on the list is Bill.

If it tracks toward Louisiana or farther east, we would be left with hot, dry weather. If it tracks toward the Upper Texas Coast or farther west, we could see some significant rains from it. Once we see where the low pressure consolidates and becomes more organized, then we will get a better feel for where it will track and what our impacts will be.

For now we advise you to stay in awareness mode as the week progresses.

June 13

7 a.m. update
There’s no major change in the modeling or expectations for our Gulf system, but we’re now up to a 50% chance of development over the next 5 days, and there’s high uncertainty as far as any potential impacts to Southeast Texas.

It’s not something you should be overly concerned with at the moment, but it remains an area we’ll continue to monitor.

June 12

2 p.m. update
We are continuing to monitor an area of showers and storms in the Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 40% chance over the next 5 days. Slow development will be a possibility over the next few days but it is still way too early to know what impacts, if any, we could see along the Gulf Coast from this disturbance.

7 a.m. update
The area we are monitoring in the Gulf now has a 40% chance of development over the next 5 days. It’s too early for specifics on exact impacts, but the moisture will gradually lift north. For now it’s just something we will be keeping an eye on.

READ MORE: Here’s today’s hour-by-hour forecast and an outlook for the next ten days

June 11

9 a.m. update
The National Hurricane Center has tagged an area of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche with a 20% chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.

Slow development will be possible as this system lifts to the north to northwest. It is still too early to determine what impacts our region could see. Residents along the upper Texas coast should keep an eye on the tropics.

June 10

9 a.m. update
No imminent threat for tropical development over the next 5 days.

However, the Climate Prediction Center says conditions may become more favorable for tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico late next week. Resident along the upper Texas coast should keep an eye on the tropics.

June 9

8 a.m. update
Formation chances with the disturbance in the southern Caribbean continues to be at a 10% chance over the next five days. However, residents along the upper Texas coast should keep up with the tropics. The Climate Prediction Center expects conditions to become more favorable for tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico late next week.

June 8

6 p.m. update
Formation chances with the disturbance in the southern Caribbean continues to be at a 20% chance over the next five days. However, residents along the upper Texas coast should keep up with the tropics. The Climate Prediction Center says conditions may become more favorable for tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico late next week.

2 p.m. update
Formation chance with the disturbance in the southern Caribbean has dropped to a 20% chance over the next five days.

10 a.m. update
Some gradual development will be possible with a tropical disturbance in the southern Caribbean over the next few days. Formation chance is just at 30% over the next 5 days, we’ll continue to monitor it.

Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy rainfall across northern Colombia and portions of Central America later this week and into the weekend.

June 7

Our tropical disturbance in the southern Caribbean remains at just a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days, we’ll continue to monitor it.

June 6

There’s a 20% (low) chance of tropical development over the next 5 days in an area just east of Central America in the southern Caribbean Sea. An area of low pressure could develop by the end of the week and may try to gradually strengthen as it moves northwest. We’ll continue to monitor this area.

June 5

No tropical development is expected in the tropical Atlantic in the next 5 days.

However, NOAA is giving us an early heads up with “high confidence” that one or more tropical systems may spin up in the western Caribbean Sea between June 9th and June 15th.

Why?
Because a large area of low pressure known as the “Central American Gyre” is expected to spin up, and these often will produce one or more smaller low pressure systems that can break off and develop into tropical depressions and storms. There’s no way to know exact details at this time and there’s certainly nothing to worry about right now, but we do want you to at least be casually aware of the possibility just in case.

June 4

No tropical development is expected in the tropical Atlantic in the next 5 days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Blanca has weakened to a post-tropical cyclone and is expected to weaken even further as it heads westward into a drier environment with increasing wind shear and cooler waters.

Just east of Blanca, an area of disturbed area is being monitored for potential tropical development. The formation chance is at 60% during the next 5 days. A tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest well off the coast of Mexico.

June 3

No tropical development is expected in the next 5 days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Blanca is now a tropical depression and is expected to weaken even further as it heads westward into a drier environment with increasing wind shear and cooler waters.

June 2

No tropical development is expected in the next 5 days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Blanca continues to move west away from Mexico. It should remain as a tropical storm through midweek but should weaken sometime on Thursday down to a tropical depression.

June 1

Today is the official start of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. No tropical development is expected in the next 5 days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Blanca continues to move west away from Mexico. It should remain as a tropical storm through midweek but should weaken sometime on Thursday down to a tropical depression.

May 31

No tropical development is expected as the Atlantic hurricane season kicks off tomorrow.

However, in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression Two-E is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours as it drifts south of Mexico. This system is expected to remain below hurricane strength and eventually fall apart as it moves over cooler water.

A tropical wave is just west of Two-E and has a slim chance for tropical development during the next five days.

May 26

There are no areas of concern for development for the next 5 days in the Atlantic, Gulf or Caribbean.

May 24

Ana has dissipated and no tropical development is expected during the next five days.

May 23

11 p.m. update
Ana is now a post-tropical cyclone and should dissipate Monday as it moves northeast farther out into the Atlantic.

3 p.m. update
Ana has now been downgraded to a tropical depression with 35 mph winds. Ana is forecast to become a remnant low by tonight as it moves northeast out farther into the Atlantic.

12 p.m. update
Ana is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic as it churns around 425 miles northeast of Bermuda. Ana’s maximum sustained winds were around 40 mph Sunday morning and was moving northeast at approximately 14 mph. An increase in forward speed was expected in the next day or so. Tropical storm-force winds extended outward up to 35 miles and there are no impacts to land. Ana is expected to weaken and dissipate by Monday.

5 a.m. update
Still plenty of moisture in SE Texas from the disturbance that moved through early Saturday morning, with light rain expected in Houston and heavier rain to our southwest. Elsewhere, 340 miles to the northeast of Bermuda our first named storm, Ana, continues to gradually move northeast over open water. Ana will not make landfall anywhere, and will dissipate early next week.

Tropical depression likely to form in Gulf Thursday night or Friday

May 22

11 p.m. update
The tropical disturbance that brought us our rain chance today continues to lift to the north.

Subtropical Storm Ana formed early Saturday and is now making its way northeast out to sea in the Atlantic. It is currently 270 miles northeast of Bermuda and is moving northeast at 9 mph. Ana currently has sustained wind speeds of 45 mph but is expected to weaken over the next 24 hours… eventually dissipating by Monday.

1 p.m. update
Our tropical disturbance responsible for bringing showers to SE Texas today continues to spin through the Hill Country. The moisture that it continues to pump into our area has produced widely scattered showers, especially west of I-45.

SubTropical Storm Ana, our first named storm of the season, is lifting away from Bermuda and poses no threat to land.

10 a.m. update
Subtropical storm Ana formed in the Atlantic Ocean early Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center. Ana was located about 200 miles northeast of Bermuda Saturday morning with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The system was expected to continue its slow and erratic motion, and then dissipate in a few days, forecasters said.

Here in the Houston area, the Gulf tropical disturbance continues to weaken and move to the north-northwest. Outer rain bands will continue to impact the Houston area today. A wind advisory has been extended for the Bolivar Peninsula, coastal Jackson, Matagorda, Brazoria and Galveston Island until 4 p.m. Coastal flood advisories continue for Chambers, coastal Brazoria, Galveston and Harris counties until 7 a.m. Sunday.

7 a.m. update
The National Weather Service has issued flood warnings for several rivers and streams across the region as rain-swollen banks continue to be impacted by scattered showers today. Impacts from the disturbance continue to include locally heavy rainfall, breezy conditions along the coast, elevated tides and marine hazards. The center of the system should push northwest throughout the day. The highest rain chances through noon should be along and west of the Brazos River. Those rain chances will expand across the area later today.

5 a.m. update
The disturbance in the Gulf moved inland near Port Lavaca, and the National Hurricane Center doesn’t expect any more development. Locally, our impacts remain unchanged from prior updates, scattered showers and storms with breezy 30-40mph wind gusts possible, especially along the coast. The NWS has issued a Coastal Flood Warning through 7 a.m. for our coastal communities.

In a much different part of the world, northeast of Bermuda, we now have our first named storm: Subtropical Storm Ana has formed. This storm will have no direct impact on land, and is only notable for being our first named storm of the year, arriving before hurricane season officially begins.

Tropical depression likely to form in Gulf Thursday night or Friday

May 21

1 p.m. update
The NHC is now giving the disturbance in the Gulf a 30% chance of development (becoming a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm).

The impacts in our area will be minor regardless of development. We can expect scattered showers and storms along with wind gusts over 30 mph overnight and through Saturday, with rain tapering off from east to west on Sunday.

Still, if it makes landfall in Texas at tropical depression or storm strength, it’ll be the first in recorded history to do so before June 1, the customary start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

1 p.m. update
A large area of thunderstorms in the western Gulf is drifting northwest towards the Texas coast.

Conditions are slightly favorable for development and the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 60% chance. Whether it develops or not, it’ll give us at least scattered, heavy downpours overnight and through the day on Saturday.

High rain rates along with the slow movement of the storms means some flooding will be possible. Gusty winds and coastal flooding may also be an issue near the coast.

May 20, 2021

According to the latest NOAA outlook, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will be busier than normal, but it’s unlikely to be as crazy as 2020’s record-shattering year.

They’re expecting 13-20 tropical storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, although storms can form before and after those dates.

During hurricane season, ABC13 meteorologists will provide daily tropical weather updates on this page.

RADAR MAPS:
Southeast Texas
Houston
Harris County

Galveston County
Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties
Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties
Brazoria/Matagorda Counties

During hurricane season, remain prepared and make sure you download our ABC13 Houston app!

Copyright © 2021 KTRK-TV. All Rights Reserved.

Author: Travis Herzog

This post originally appeared on ABC13 RSS Feed

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Tropical depression likely to form in Gulf Thursday night or Friday
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