Experts predict ‘two-horse race’ for electric car sales crown

Bloomberg Intelligence’s (BI) Europe Autos 2023 Outlook found that there is only a “two-horse race” for battery electric vehicle (BEV) supremacy. Based on its forecasts, Volkswagen is the “sole contender” to Tesla’s electric car crown. Tesla’s new EU capacity and robust global demand should enable it to retain its BEV sales crown for at least another two years.

Despite this, Volkswagen is hot on its heels and could overtake in 2025 and 2026 assuming software delays are resolved.

The new report has found that escalating battery costs and battery supply could be the electric car industry’s next bottleneck.

Michael Dean, Senior Industry Analyst (Autos) at Bloomberg Intelligence, pointed out how many European Governments offer generous subsidies for electric cars.

He said: “We see regional differences on net pricing with discounts as a percentage of list prices remaining high in Germany and France versus the UK (where discounts remain historically low), based on JATO data. 

READ MORE: RAC urges drivers to avoid certain forecourts

Shenzhen-based BYD sold 641,000 vehicles in the first six months of the year, a more than 300 percent jump from the same period a year earlier, according to company filings.

That compared with 564,000 vehicles sold by Tesla, which has blamed a tough second quarter on supply chain and sales disruptions in China after its operations were hit by coronavirus lockdowns and travel restrictions.

BYD, which is part-owned by Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, has overtaken South Korea’s LG as the world’s second-biggest producer of EV batteries.

UK used-car prices rose for a 31st consecutive month as supply remains tight in October 2022, according to the AutoTrader Retail Price Index, though they’re now on a downward trajectory.

Investment into electric cars in the UK continues, with the Government pushing ahead with its rollout of public EV chargers.

At the end of November 2022, there were 36,752 electric vehicle charging points across the UK, across 21,906 charging locations. 

This represents a 33 percent increase in the number of charging devices since November 2021, according to Zap-Map.

According to data released in July, less than 10 percent of in-market buyers currently recognise new electric vehicle manufacturers like Fisker, Nio, and Lynk & Co. 

These brands are set to enter the UK market in the coming years as the appetite for electric cars continues to grow.

The research revealed 56 percent had not heard of any of the following brands before: Faraday Future, Fisker, Lucid, Lynk & Co, Nio, Polestar, Rivian, or WM.

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By Felix Reeves

Felix Reeves writes all things motoring for the Cars section. He recently completed his BA in Journalism at the University of Kent.

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