4 GOP Campaign Chiefs Make Their Final Election Predictions. They’re as Divided as the Country.

32 min


Tim Alberta

That conversation was so interesting that we decided to get the gang back together a few months later, at the Texas Tribune Festival, for a discussion of Biden’s flagging candidacy and how he might stop the bleeding. Then, in April of 2020, we adapted to the pandemic by holding our inaugural “Smoke Filled Zoom,” recapping the abrupt conclusion of the Democratic primary and weighing the political implications of Covid-19. Finally, just before Labor Day, we reassembled over the web to break down the party conventions, the Biden-Trump matchup and the potential October surprises that awaited.


Given this group’s documented, 18-month-long discussion of the race, it was only appropriate to bring everyone together one last time and compare predictions. In this fifth and final installment of our campaign manager roundtable, these four elder statesmen of the GOP debate which party will control the Senate next year, which states Trump can hang onto and who will win the Electoral College. We also addressed the question on the minds of so many Americans: If Trump loses, but refuses to concede, what happens next?

The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

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