Research by the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Essex says a total of around 6.5 million people are to loose their jobs due to the impact the coronavirus lockdown is having on the economy.
Hospitality services such as accommodation and food jobs are predicted to suffer the worst rate of cuts, with 75.1 percent of jobs lost, which equates to around 1.3 million positions.
Ranked second was “other services” at 50.2 percent.
So called “wholesale, retail and repair of motor vehicles” came in at 47.6 percent of job losses – or roughly two million jobs.
Next came transport and storage on 44 per cent, or some 700,000 positions.
Britain’s coronavirus lockdown is set to cost a quarter of UK jobs
Finally, “administrative and support services” came in with the loss of 26.5 percent of positions.
The study shows the knock-on effects of certain industries on other sectorS.
The agriculture, forestry and fishing sector is tipped to lose one job in 10 due to reduced demand from the accommodation and food sector.
Among sectors losing jobs, those faring best in the study were public administration/defence/social security.
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This sector saw a mere 1.5 percent of cuts.
Real estate saw 1.6 percent of cuts, and mining, energy and water supply 2.7 percent.
However, these losses are mostly set to be temporary, with things largely returning to normal after lockdown.
Though, this doesn’t apply to every job loss.
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Professor Matteo Richiardi, an expert on modelling labour markets who led the research, warned the risk of jobs being permanently lost depends on the duration of the lockdown.
He said: “If this is short, say a few months, the links between employers and employees of affected industries might not be severed, and individual careers might not suffer too much,” he told The Observer newspaper.
“Under a longer lockdown, losses of human capital and scarring effects will occur.”
He warned the recovery of the economy may be at the expense of the people.
“The economy will still bounce back, but at a higher cost for individuals,” he said.
However, despite the bleak findings, some sectors actually showed an increase in their workforces.
This is chiefly health and social work, with a 27.1 percent rise, and “professional, scientific and technical activities” up 3.4 percent.
The institute’s modelling reflects the capacity of some people to work from home.
This leaves some sectors less affected than others.
Prof Richiardi said the analysis confirmed a continued lockdown was economically unsustainable, and this is likely to add to pressure on the Government to ease restrictions and revitalise the economy.
He added: “This is why we need to make the most out of the extra time the lockdown is buying us, and increase our capacity to trace and isolate new cases, especially asymptomatic cases, so that the economy can be restarted before a vaccine is ready.”
Prof Richiardi called for the lockdown to be phased out across sectors and regions, and reinstated if needed, rather than be switched on and off altogether.