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Odds for NASCAR race at Homestead: Expert picks & favorites to win Sunday's Cup Series race

Odds for NASCAR race at Homestead: Expert picks & favorites to win Sunday's Cup Series race 1

The odds for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead-Miami Speedway are based on the combination of past results at the 1.5-mile oval in South Florida and recent intermediate track racing trends. Our picks to win Sunday’s race at Homestead are fueled by the same factors.

For example, two of the top three drivers on the odds board have won at Homestead over the last three years. Those wins, of course, made Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. NASCAR Cup Series champions in 2019 and 2017, respectively. Now the Homestead race will play out during the first half of the season with much less on the line.

MORE: Full starting lineup for NASCAR race at Martinsville

The fact that the Homestead Cup event is now a day race is an interesting X-factor, as the 1.5-mile oval will be much slicker in the heat of June as opposed to conditions for a night race in November.

Below are the complete Vegas odds to win Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead, plus our top three picks of drivers who could end up taking the checkered flag.

NASCAR race odds to win at Homestead

Kevin Harvick sits alongside Truex atop the odds board with good reason. Harvick, the NASCAR Cup Series points leader, has the best career driver rating at Homestead among those in Sunday’s field. This will be his 20th Cup Series start at the track in South Florida.

Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, below are the complete odds to win Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead.

DriverOdds to win Homestead race
Kevin Harvick+470
Martin Truex Jr.+470
Kyle Busch+500
Chase Elliott+800
Joey Logano+850
Brad Keselowski+1000
Denny Hamlin+1000
Ryan Blaney+1100
Alex Bowman+2200
Jimmie Johnson+2500
Clint Bowyer+2800
Kurt Busch+2800
William Byron+4200
Erik Jones+5000
Aric Almirola+6500
Matt DiBenedetto+6500
Matt Kenseth+6500
Austin Dillon+7500
Ryan Newman+7500
Tyler Reddick+7500
Bubba Wallace+11000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.+12000
Chris Buescher+14000
Christopher Bell+18000
BJ McLeod+20000
Brennan Poole+20000
Cole Custer+20000
Corey LaJoie+20000
Daniel Suarez+20000
Garrett Smithley+20000
JJ Yeley+20000
Ty Dillon+20000
Joey Gase+20000
John Hunter Nemechek+20000
Michael McDowell+20000
Quin Houff+20000
Ryan Preece+20000
Timmy Hill+20000

Below are the top 10 career driver ratings at Homestead among those in Sunday’s field:

  1. Kevin Harvick, 108.8
  2. Martin Truex Jr., 107.3
  3. Matt Kenseth, 105.2
  4. Kyle Busch, 102.3
  5. Denny Hamlin, 97.4
  6. Joey Logano, 94.2
  7. Jimmie Johnson, 93.7
  8. Chase Elliott, 91.8
  9. Brad Keselowski, 89.2
  10. Clint Bowyer, 85.9

Denny Hamlin (2009, 2013) and Kyle Busch (2015, 2019) lead all active drivers in wins at Homestead with two apiece.

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There have been 21 NASCAR Cup Series races at Homestead, and six of them featured winners who started on the front row — two from the pole and four from second. Hamlin and Joey Logano will start on the front row for Sunday’s race.

Below is the breakdown of wins from varying starting positions in the history of Cup racing at Homestead.

Starting positionWinning %Wins
1st9.5 percent2
Front row28.6 percent6
Top 561.9 percent13
Top 1071.4 percent15
Outside top 2028.6 percent6

The top 10 starters for Wednesday’s race at Homestead are as follows: 1. Denny Hamlin, 2. Joey Logano, 3. Brad Keselowski, 4. Kyle Busch, 5. Chase Elliott, 6. Martin Truex Jr., 7. Kevin Harvick, 8. Alex Bowman, 9. Jimmie Johnson, 10. Kurt Busch

MORE: Updated NASCAR schedule for 2020

NASCAR at Homestead expert picks

1. Kyle Busch

Career stats at Homestead:

  • Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s
  • Average finish of 16.333 (12th-best)
  • Average running position of 11.913 (seventh-best)
  • Driver rating of 102.3 (fourth-best)
  • 284 fastest laps run (second-best)
  • 3,014 laps in top 15; 75.2 percent (fourth-most)
  • 587 quality passes (eighth-most)

Busch’s relative struggles this season were amplified by a bad race at Martinsville on Wednesday night, but his team likely will welcome its return to the track where it won a championship last season. Busch obviously has the speed and the talent to win; his team just needs to put together a complete race for him to finally notch a victory in 2020.

2. Kevin Harvick

Career stats at Homestead:

  • One win, 11 top fives, 17 top 10s
  • Average finish of 5.533 (series-best)
  • Average running position of 7.886 (series-best)
  • Driver rating of 108.8 (series-best)
  • 251 fastest laps run (third-best)
  • 3,401 laps in top 15; 84.9 percent (series-most)
  • 644 quality passes (sixth-most)

Simply put: Harvick statistically is the best driver in the field at Homestead. And as evidenced by Harvick’s win last week at Atlanta, we know his No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing team has the speed it needs to succeed at an intermediate track on a hot day.

3. Chase Elliott

Career stats at Homestead:

  • One top five, two top 10s
  • Average finish of 9.500 (fourth-best)
  • Average running position of 11.296 (fourth-best)
  • Driver rating of 91.8 (eighth-best)
  • 26 fastest laps run (15th-best)
  • 843 laps in top 15; 78.9 percent (14th-most)
  • 227 quality passes (14th-most)
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This is less about Elliott’s relatively short history at Homestead and more about Hendrick Motorsports’ speed in 2020. Elliott and his teammates have been competitive at all types of tracks this year, and the No. 9 team’s strong recent runs at Darlington, Charlotte and Atlanta suggest NASCAR’s most popular driver could be in for another big day at an intermediate track.

(All NASCAR loop data stats are from 2005 through present.)

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