Paul Charles is CEO of travel consultancy The PC Agency which has correctly predicted the weekly government review for the past three weeks.
He warned on Twitter today that Portugal will likely be back on the quarantine list next week.
“#Portugal cases increase again, putting it on the brink of the red zone for #quarantine by Saturday morning,” he tweeted.
According to The PC Agency data, there are currently 19.4 COVID-19 cases over 100,000 people over seven cumulative in Portugal.
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The UK has said nations will be taken off the travel corridor list once this figure rises above 20.
“[Portugal] will need to see a miracle drop in case numbers by Thursday to avoid being added again to the government’s on-off quarantine list as it is quickly veering into the red zone,” Charles told The Telegraph.
He warned that travellers in Portugal may want to return in the few days.
“#Portugal seeing higher case rates in Lisbon again – would be wise to consider returning to #UK by September 4 if you wish to avoid #quarantine,” he posted on Twitter yesterday.
The expert also issued a caution for Italy.
“#Italy likely to be in amber soon as cases jump well above 1000/day but it should survive this week’s review,” he tweeted.
Italy currently has 14.4 cases per 100,000.
Charles predicted that, similarly, Turkey should be “safe until September 11 on current forecasts.”
He added that booking holidays is still a precarious business right now.
“As always, it is at your own risk,” Charles posted.
As for where Britons can travel without fear of quarantine, Charles suggested Cyprus and Denmark.
“Where to book for the next two weeks? #Cyprus #Denmark seem the safest for a late break,” he tweeted.
The Czech Republic, Jamaica and Switzerland were all removed from the ‘safe’ list yesterday.
The government warned: “Countries and territories can be taken off or added to this travel corridor list at any time.”
They added: “We will keep the conditions in these countries and territories under review.
“If they worsen we will reintroduce self-isolation requirements.”