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Rishi Sunak leads UK economy fightback as workers on payrolls surge by 356,000

Rishi Sunak grilled on National Living Wage

The figures, published by the the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning, indicate that the number of UK workers on payrolls rose by 356,000 between May and June. However, the total has dropped by 206,000 since the start of the pandemic.

 

We’re on the right track and pushing for recovery

Mims Davies

Minister for Employment Mims Davies MP said: “In the past year we have supported over 14.5 million people across the country through our Plan for Jobs including through the Kickstart Scheme.

“We know that it’s not been possible to save every job, but we have protected as many as we can, whilst helping new jobseekers through our DWP programmes to secure work.

“There is still work to do as today’s figures show, but importantly we’re on the right track and pushing for recovery – with a sustained rise in the number of people on payrolls, including 135,000 more young people in work this month, and another rise in vacancies on offer as we continue on our roadmap.”

The ONS’s latest monthly bulletin shows that after a period of employment growth and low unemployment, since the start of the pandemic, the employment rate has generally decreased, and the unemployment rate increased.

Rishi Sunak

More than 350,000 Britons were added to payrolls last year, the data shows (Image: GETTY)

Mims Davies

Mims Davies, the DWP Secretary (Image: PA)

However, both have shown signs of recovery since the end of 2020 .

In the latest period, between March to May 2021, there was an increase in the employment rate of 0.1 percentage points, to 74.8 percent, and a decrease in the unemployment rate of 0.2 percentage points, to 4.8 percent.

The economic inactivity rate is up 0.1 percentage points on the previous quarter, to 21.3 percent.

The relaxation of many coronavirus restrictions, total hours worked increased on the quarter, but is still below pre-pandemic levels.

READ MORE: Bullish Macron stakes EU army leadership claim

ONS graph

The latest ONS data (Image: ONS)

The redundancy rate fell on the quarter and has returned to pre-pandemic levels.

There were 862,000 job vacancies in April to June 2021 – 77,500 above its pre-pandemic level in January to March 2020.

The ONS analysis also reveals the growth in average total pay (including bonuses) was 7.3 percent and regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 6.6 percent among employees for March to May 2021.

However, annual growth in average employee pay is still being affected by temporary factors whcih have inflated the increase in the headline growth rate.

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Jonathan Reynolds

Shadow DWP Secretary Jonathan Reynolds (Image: GETTY)

Young people bar work

Young people were badly hit by a scarcity of work at the start of the pandemic said Darren Morgan (Image: GETTY)

All but one industry saw quarterly increases in their number of vacancies. In June 2021, the experimental monthly vacancies data, and the experimental Adzuna online vacancies data both continued to surpass pre-pandemic levels.

The increase in payrolled workers was the biggest since those records began in 2014.

Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics, said: “The labour market is continuing to recover, with the number of employees on payroll up again strongly in June.

“However it is still over 200,000 down on pre-pandemic levels, while a large number of workers remain on furlough.”

Rule changes July 19

Rule changes on July 19 (Image: Express)

He added: “The number of job vacancies continued to rise very strongly.

“The biggest sector driving this was hospitality, followed by wholesaling and retailing.

“As the economy gradually reopened, the unemployment rate fell in March to May.

“This was especially marked for younger people, who had been hardest hit by earlier lockdowns.”

Coronavirus cases rising

The areas of the UK where COVID-19 cases are rising (Image: Express)

Responding the figures, Jonathan Reynolds MP, Labour’s Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, struck a more downbeat tone, saying: “The Government’s failure to secure the recovery has seen record long term unemployment.

“Nearly half a million people have been unemployed for a year yet the Restart jobs scheme has been live for just three days.”

He added: “Labour has a plan to buy, make and sell more in Britain so we can create the jobs of the future, nurture the skills we need and get our economy firing on all cylinders.

“Labour’s jobs promise would guarantee a job or training opportunity for any young person away from work or education for six months, and ensure no one is away from work for more than a year.”

(More to follow)

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This post originally posted here Daily Express :: UK Feed

Kenya’s investors lobby to promote circular economy in coast region

Kenya Private Sector Alliance (KEPSA) has partnered with bilateral donors to promote a circular economy in the coast region amid an escalating plastic waste crisis threatening marine life, Trend reports citing Xinhua.

Martha Cheruto, Deputy CEO, KEPSA said that the growth of the circular economy in the coastal region will boost the health of marine ecosystems and create additional jobs for the youth.

“We have engaged diverse stakeholders to accelerate the growth of the circular economy in the coast region and have supported the youth to come up with innovative waste recycling business models that guarantee sustainable income,” said Cheruto.

She said that the implementation of the second phase of the sustainable waste recycling project in the coastal city of Mombasa is ongoing to stimulate the growth of the circular economy.

According to Cheruto, KEPSA has secured funding in order to provide seed capital, technology and training for coastal youth keen on venturing into plastic waste recycling.

She said that more than 100 households will be trained on the separation of waste at the source while youth from low-income settlements will be provided with innovations required to convert plastic waste into products that have commercial value.

Karin Boomsma, director of KEPSA affiliated Sustainable Inclusive Business (SIB) said that the circular economy holds the key to ecological health in the coastal region besides alleviating youth unemployment.

Boomsma noted that plastic litter dumped into the Indian Ocean is a threat to the livelihoods of fishing communities along the Kenyan coast adding that the private sector should rally behind innovative programs to manage waste at the source.

She said implementation of the six months waste recycling project in Mombasa will reduce pollution along the beaches and mangrove forests that are key breeding grounds for marine species like fish, oysters and crabs.

Boomsma said that harnessing capital, technology and innovations from industry is key to advance the circular economy in Kenya and deliver the constitutional right to a clean and healthy environment for all citizens.

G20 economy ministers endorse global tax deal

G20 economy ministers endorse global tax deal

The world’s largest economies have thrown their weight behind a global tax reform deal that would impose a minimum levy on multinational corporations, ramping up pressure on a small number of holdout countries to sign up to the agreement.

G20 economy ministers and central bankers meeting in Venice on Saturday issued a joint communique endorsing the tax deal, which was agreed by G7 nations last month and backed by 130 countries at talks hosted by the OECD in Paris earlier this month.

The communique said that the deal was “a historic agreement on a more stable and fairer international tax architecture” and the G20 invited “all members of the OECD . . . that have not yet joined the agreement to do so”.

It called on all countries in the negotiations to “swiftly address the remaining issues and finalise the design elements” by the next G20 meeting in October.

Janet Yellen, US treasury secretary, said that the G20 would try to bring small holdout countries, which include Ireland and Hungary, towards accepting the agreement but this was not essential to moving forward.

“It’s not essential that every country be on board,” she said.

Bruno Le Maire, French finance minister, called the tax deal “a once in a century tax revolution”.

“The reform of international taxation has been agreed and there is no turning back,” he said.

The next steps for the October G20 meeting will be to fix a globally agreed minimum tax rate and work out how shares of profits from taxation will be allocated between countries.

Eight countries, including Ireland, Barbados, Hungary and Estonia, have held off on agreeing the 15 per cent minimum levy, which is backed by the US, China, India and most EU countries. Other holdouts include Sri Lanka, Nigeria, Kenya and St Vincent & the Grenadines.

Some low-tax jurisdictions and investment hubs, such as the Bahamas and Switzerland, have already signed up.

Peru did not originally sign up because it did not have a government in place when the agreement was made but has now done so, making 131 signatories.

While the political endorsement of the G20 will provide an impetus to efforts to reach a final deal, which is expected to implemented by 2023, important technical issues remain and are unlikely to be resolved this weekend.

These include various so-called carve-out agreements which would let some countries use opt-outs from the deal to encourage investment.

Another hurdle is expected to be Republican opposition in the US Congress; President Joe Biden is likely to need Congressional approval for at least some elements of the proposal.

Kevin Brady, the top Republican on the House of Representatives’ ways and means committee, has described the deal as “a dangerous economic surrender that sends US jobs overseas”.

US economy adds 850000 jobs as hiring gains pace

US economy adds 850,000 jobsThe US economy created 850,000 jobs in June, which US president Joe Biden has hailed as “historic progress” towards recovering from the Covid-19 shock, as hiring catches up with the unrelenting demand for workers.

Non-farm payrolls data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday came in well above economists’ expectations of 720,000 jobs created for the month, surpassing the upwardly revised 583,000 gain posted in May and an unexpectedly weak 278,000 new hires in April.

“We have now created over 3m jobs since I took office, more jobs than have ever been created in the first five months of any presidency in modern history,” Biden said in a speech at the White House after the data release. “This is historic progress, pulling our economy out of the worst crisis in 100 years.”

Despite the increase in payrolls — the largest in 10 months — the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 5.9 per cent from 5.8 per cent the month before.

“It was a solid report, [one] you would hope for given the reopening has continued to gather pace,” said Lee Ferridge, head of macro strategy for North America at State Street Global Markets.

The June report landed at a critical juncture for the US economy. Easing lockdown measures and generous government stimulus programmes have fuelled a robust rebound in economic growth this year. US consumer prices have in turn surged as supply chain constraints have hampered some businesses’ ability to meet red-hot consumer demand.

Crippling labour shortages have also hamstrung employers, as childcare constraints and fears about catching Covid-19 dissuade people from returning to the workforce. Some businesses blame unemployment benefits for holding up the jobs recovery, prompting several Republican-leaning US states to slash aid.

Companies have begun raising wages and handing out perks to attract new hires. Friday’s report suggested those measures have balanced some of the labour market mismatches.

“Instead of workers competing with each other for jobs that are scarce, employers are competing with each other to attract workers,” Biden said. “That kind of competition in the market doesn’t just give workers more ability to earn higher wages, it also gives them the power to demand to be treated with dignity and respect in the workplace.”

“More jobs, better wages. That’s a good combination,” the president added. “Put simply, our economy is on the move.”

Hiring in the leisure and hospitality sector picked up, with 343,000 jobs created for the month. Average hourly earnings jumped for these workers, with 2.3 per cent month-over-month gains for those in non-supervisory positions. Retailers also revved up hiring, filling 67,000 new jobs. Other sectors including public and private education and professional and business services saw improvements.

Construction was one of the “surprising weak spots” last month, said Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies, especially in light of the booming US housing market. The number of jobs in the sector fell 7,000 in the third straight month of declines. He attributed the drop to a “worker availability issue more than anything else”.

The labour force participation rate, which tracks the number of Americans either employed or looking for a job, held steady in June at 61.6 per cent. It has remained stuck below 62 per cent since last year.

“It does play into the narrative that there is a block of workers that haven’t re-entered the labour force this summer,” Ferridge said.

Average hourly earnings more broadly edged 10 cents higher to $ 30.40, amounting to a 0.3 per cent gain from the month before. On a year-over-year basis, earnings have increased 3.6 per cent.

The strong jobs report helped to bolster the case made by a cohort of US central bankers that the Federal Reserve should begin to consider withdrawing its monetary policy support as it closes in on “substantial further progress” towards averaging 2 per cent inflation and achieving full employment. That has long been the threshold for any adjustment to the Fed’s $ 120bn monthly asset purchase programme.

Fed chair Jay Powell and other members of the Federal Open Market Committee have instead urged patience — a message they sought to hammer home last month following the release of the US central bank’s “dot plot” of individual interest rate projections, which signalled a potentially more hawkish stance than many had anticipated.

Despite June’s gains, US employment remains far below its pre-pandemic levels. More than 9m people are still unemployed, compared to 5.7m in February 2020.

Biden argued on Friday that passing his sweeping infrastructure proposals would fuel further economic recovery. Last week, the White House struck a deal with a small bipartisan group of senators on a $ 1tn investment package. However, the deal will need sign-off from both the House of Representatives and the Senate to become law.

US government bonds fell marginally after the unexpectedly jobs strong report on Friday, with the benchmark 10-year note steady at 1.45 per cent.

Author: Colby Smith in New York and Lauren Fedor in Washington
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He Thought He Could Outfox the Gig Economy. He Was Wrong

The work didn’t come naturally—“You’re pushed to treat people like products,” he says—but it was a job he could do without a college degree. His mom, who was splitting her time between Beijing and San Francisco, started buying houses as an investment. She tried to help Fang get business by having him process one of her loans. She also urged him to borrow for a place of his own. Fang was 22 and earned only $ 40,000 after bonuses, but it was 2004. He got an adjustable-­rate mortgage for a cookie-­cutter $ 638,000 house in a working-­class neighborhood. His parents pitched in on the down payment.

Four years later, scraping along at the bottom of employee performance targets, he quit the bank before he got fired. Now 26, he returned to City College, this time with zeal. He dove into philosophy, sashayed on the waltz team, and won election to the highest student office, student trustee, hoping to juice a transfer application to his dream schools, Stanford and Berkeley. Fang was on his way up, haranguing the community college board to step up their leadership, lobbying the California legislature in the Mao suit made for his high school prom, presiding over graduation on the same stage as Nancy Pelosi. The guy who gets things done.

In 2010, with only a part-time gig at a pet shop, he was also the guy who often missed his $ 2,500 monthly house payment. His house wasn’t worth what he owed on it, and in 2013 he was pushed into the ranks of the 10 million Americans whose homes were put into foreclosure during the Great Recession. He was lucky once more: His parents let him move into one of their investment homes, rent-free. Still, the grind—his money woes, college politicking, the side job—started pulling down his grades. A familiar shame set in: “Forget your dream, you’re not going to make it.” So, he says, “I left.”

During a trip to Beijing in 2013, Fang encountered a more welcome complication. His parents, he says, wanted him to get on with his life—their younger son was married, while Fang had “X number of failed relationships and nothing to show for it,” he says. They invited a young physical therapist over for dinner. He was struck by her gentle­ness and her college education. They stayed in touch, and over the months, via texts and calls, he fell “super in love.” They started talking about marriage. He told her that he was broke, his credit shot, and he had no job. She said they’d work it out. “I told myself, ‘She’s the one.’”

Fang pulled more than half the money from his 401(k) to buy a ticket to China for the wedding in April 2014. The plan was for his wife to eventually join him in San Francisco. But to make sure immigrants don’t become public charges, US citizens need assets to sponsor visa applications. Fang figured that it would take months, if not more than a year, to raise enough cash to bring his new bride to California. Soon after returning to San Francisco, married but alone, he learned that his wife was pregnant. Now, with two people to sponsor and his bank account empty, the process was going to take longer. He needed a job where he could save money and also take time off to visit Beijing for a few months a year. What job would allow that?

One day, while Fang was walking in Union Square, a car plastered with a Day-Glo mustache drove by. He Googled “pink mustache.” While Fang had been consumed with City College politics, his adopted city had become a post­recession boom town. Since Uber’s founding, in 2008, venture capital had poured into the so-called on-demand economy. Using freelancers to meet the fluctuations of customer demand, apps promised groceries delivered, Ikea cabinets assembled, dogs walked. The companies’ pitch to drivers: In a city of hustling disruption, they too could be entrepreneurs.

Fang just needed the money. He climbed into his dad’s 2002 Acura TL and opened the pink app. After a couple hours of driving, he’d earned $ 71. “I got comfortable with this job really quickly,” Fang says, “and I got good at it pretty quickly.” Looking back, this was precisely the problem.

3.

In the beginning, Fang was the driver of Lyft’s marketing fantasies. He cheerily accepted nearly every ride for eight to 10 hours a day. Customers gave him five-star reviews: “Great guy. Very intelligent.” He’d wait half an hour, unpaid, for a couple to finish their sidewalk spat before one of them climbed in. He handed out free water bottles. He chatted amiably, played the classical station, and dressed up as Batman for Halloween.

After a few months, Fang got more strategic. He divided up the day to surf the morning and evening rushes, when the surge would push up fares. Thursday through Saturday he ferried the bar crowd home until just before dawn. Fang imposed a tight budget, scoping the $ 3 Safeway burrito bowl or the $ 1.50 hot dog and soda at Costco. He was bringing home $ 1,200 a week before expenses—enough, because he was living rent-free, to put money away and send some to Beijing, where his wife had moved into his parents’ home. He’d visit her, usually for about two months at the beginning of the year and again for a month in the fall. The app, the passengers, and his strict frugality aligned in a virtuous circle. I’m helping people. I’m making money. This is gonna work out.

Author: Lauren Smiley
This post originally appeared on Backchannel Latest

‘Wake up!’ Germany wants to break up UK and damage economy, warns ex-diplomat

And Adrian Hill said the Government should stop pandering to Brussels over Northern Ireland, pull the plug on the trade deal signed in December and “walk away” – while he also backed a pledge by Express.co.uk readers to boycott EU products. Mr Hill, a former officer in the Royal Engineers who among other diplomatic posts worked as a member of the Channel Tunnel team at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the COBRA Committee of the Cabinet Office, was speaking after Andreas Michaelis, Germany’s ambassador to Britain, talked up the possibility of a stronger bilateral agreement with a country he suggested was an ideal partner for a “deep alliance”.

Similarly, Jean-Yves Le Drian, the French foreign minister, speaking during his recent trip to the UK for the G7 summit in Cornwall, suggested his country and the UK needed to focus on their “common interests”.

Meanwhile the UK and Italy have traditionally worked closely in the area of defence, with Leonardo and BAE Systems among the companies collaborating on Tempest, sixth-generation fighter project.

However, Mr Hill said the Government should be wary of such international alliances.

He told Express.co.uk: “When will these schoolboys wake up to reality?

“The German Army’s strategic plan is more than clear – NATO is breaking up and so is the EU.

“Germany must bind the eurozone countries around her to preserve the economy and surrounding export markets.

READ MORE: Macron to seize power as Merkel finally steps down

“Boris and his mates may not be able to see that but, take it from me, we voters can.”

Addressing the UK’s future relationship with the EU, Mr Hill, a regular contributor to the Briefings for Britain website, said: “We are out, no longer liable for anything save the Eurocrats pension fund.

“We should triple our defence budget and stop kowtowing to the EU.

“For a start we could take the advice of the lawyer star chamber and insist on sorting out the Northern Ireland mess and the fishing. “

Mr Hill added: “If the EU refuses, scrap the trade deal and refuse to pay the EU a penny. There’s nothing they could do, frankly.

“The good old British public have started boycotting EU products.

“If I were Boris – and I’ve met him and liked him – I would pay a lot more attention to what the ordinary Brit thinks of all this than a bunch of pussyfooters in Westminster and Whitehall.”

Speaking last month French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Drian said: “On many issues, we have congruent views, shared analysis or common interests.

“We are neighbours. We cannot sit there immobile staring at one another.”

Angela Merkel, Germany’s Chancellor raised eyebrows in 2017 when she said of the USA and the UK: “The times in which we could completely depend on others are, to a certain extent, over.

“I’ve experienced that in the last few days. We Europeans truly have to take our fate into our own hands.

“We have to know that we must fight for our future on our own, for our destiny as Europeans.”

Author:
This post originally appeared on Daily Express :: World Feed

India Covid-19 crisis could seriously damage global economy

India’s latest upsurge in coronavirus cases, along with its highest daily toll of Covid-19-linked deaths, is expected not only to hamper its economic recovery but also to drag down several sectors vital for the world’s economy.

Rising infections are forcing the country to impose stricter lockdowns, which could have a dramatic impact on several industries, including financial services, global shipping, clothing, pharmaceuticals and many others.

The situation may create a big “shortage of seafarers” as some 200,000 of an estimated 1.7 million of the world’s sailors come from India, said Guy Platten, Secretary General at the International Chamber of Shipping, as quoted by CNN Business.
Also on rt.com India’s exports nearly triple in April despite huge spike in Covid-19 infections
Since nearly 80% of the world’s trade volume is carried on ships, global shipping could feel the pain of a worker shortage. That may be exacerbated by the latest bans imposed on flights from India, preventing Indian workers from moving to ports around the world, and crews from swapping.

Additionally, India is home to the world’s largest vaccine maker. The Serum Institute of India (SII), produces over 60% of all vaccines sold across the globe. Moreover, the country is the world’s largest supplier of generic drugs – copies of brand-name pharmaceuticals that have the same effects but cost less.

The latest outbreak in India has partially stalled the world’s vaccination drive, as the country’s authorities have shifted focus from shipping vaccines abroad to prioritizing Indian citizens. Meanwhile, Indian drug makers, which receive nearly 70% of their raw materials from China, reportedly expect production declines due to the vulnerability of supply chains.
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“Most countries depend on India for generic drugs, and India depends on China for raw material. It will be a big blow to global pharma supply chain if trade between the two is disrupted,” Tinglong Dai, associate professor of Operations Management and Business Analytics at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, told the media.

A pandemic-related shortage of workers has also severely hit the textile industry. As India is one of the largest textile exporters in the world, the clothes-making sector is projected to suffer a direct hit.

Absenteeism among employees in the sector is 50%, according to consulting firm Wazir Advisors, which also reports that domestic clothing industry consumption and exports dropped 30% and 24%, respectively, in 2020.
Also on rt.com India’s economy may shrink amid soaring Covid-19 cases, analysts warn
Suppliers of financial services, including banks and accounting firms, which have moved their back offices to India, are reportedly shifting to other countries, allowing staff to work from home and extending project deadlines.

India is an important hub for the financial service sector, becoming a home to multinationals like Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Barclays, NatWest, Standard Chartered and Ernst & Young (EY).

“A significant number of EY people and their family members have been directly impacted by the severe second wave of Covid in India,” Julie Teigland, a regional managing partner, told CNN Business.

For more stories on economy & finance visit RT’s business section

Author: RT
This post originally appeared on RT Business News

European economy slides into double-dip recession after new Covid-19 wave

Author: RT
This post originally appeared on RT Business News

Both the EU and the eurozone economies are facing a second recession in just over a year, continuing to shrink in the first three months of 2021, according to preliminary estimates released by Eurostat.

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the 19 countries sharing the euro contracted 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in January through March, while the wider EU economy was down 0.4%, the statistical office said on Friday. Year-on-year, the euro area economy shrank by 1.8%, while output in the 27-nation bloc declined 1.7%.

Also on rt.com EU response to Covid-19 pandemic has cost six million jobs, young workers worst affected

The EU and the euro area faced declines in the final three months of 2020 as a new wave of Covid-19 hit the continent. That means that the region is currently in a technical recession again, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Europe is now in a double-dip recession, a situation when a recession is followed by a short-lived recovery and another recession. The first recession hit in the first half of 2020, when the coronavirus crisis led to lockdowns which shut most businesses, before rebounding in the third quarter. 

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The bloc’s largest economy, Germany, was among three EU members facing the biggest contractions in January-March. Germany has the highest year-on-year decrease in GDP after Portugal and Spain, which stands at 3%. The German economy also fell by 1.7% compared to the previous quarter.

However, some economists point out that the situation is set to improve later this year, as vaccinations will help governments to ease coronavirus restrictions and boost recovery. 

“However, speed aside, it is moving in the right direction – particularly as the vaccine roll out gathers pace,” Robert Alster, CIO at wealth manager Close Brothers Asset Management, said as cited by Yahoo Finance. He added that the summer months are “crucial for southern Europe’s road to recovery,” especially for tourism-reliant states.

For more stories on economy & finance visit RT’s business section

India’s economy may shrink amid soaring Covid-19 cases, analysts warn

Author: RT
This post originally appeared on RT Business News

The latest surge of coronavirus cases in India is likely to drag down Asia’s third largest economy, which has yet to recover from the pandemic-driven slowdown last year, economists say, revising earlier forecasts.

India reported another 323,144 infections over the past 24 hours, bringing the country’s cumulative Covid cases to more than 17.6 million. Some states have introduced partial lockdowns or harsh restrictions, such as curfews.

The first quarter of the fiscal year that begins in April is “clearly going to see a sequential growth hit,” according to Sonal Varma, chief economist (India) at Nomura, as quoted by CNBC. The analyst projects the country’s GDP to shrink by about 1.5% from April through June.

Also on rt.com India’s double-digit growth in doubt amid massive surge in Covid cases

“There is a downside risk to this number, given the extended lockdowns we are seeing across states, but we do still think it’s going to be a double-digit growth for India,” the analyst told the media.

However, the economy may grow only 25% against the fiscal first quarter of last year, as India’s GDP contracted nearly 24% in the same period in 2020.

“We might still be able to eke out a double-digit growth,” Radhika Rao, an economist at DBS, said, echoing Varma’s sentiment.

DBS expects the Indian economy to grow by 10.5% for the full fiscal year that ends in March 2022.

“I might have to bring [my prediction] down by half a percent or a percent in the coming weeks, depending on how restrictive the restrictions are going to be,” Rao said.

Also on rt.com Covid-19 to delay India’s rise to world’s third-biggest economy – Bank of America

She added that “some kind of recovery” is expected to emerge in the July-to-September period: “Last year’s example also showed that, once the numbers start to peak off and recede, economic activity certainly tends to come back because of pent-up savings, because of pent-up demand.”

Rao also pointed out that the current restrictions are more localized, and concentrated on the services side, in comparison with those imposed during the first wave of infections.

“We have enough anecdotal evidence of factories in the state of Maharashtra which are able to operate at 100% capacity despite the lockdowns,” she said.

Maharashtra, where the country’s financial capital, Mumbai, is located, has become the epicenter of India’s second Covid wave.

For more stories on economy & finance visit RT’s business section