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Photos: UK, US Aircraft Carriers Run Joint Drills in Gulf of Aden on Queen Elizabeth’s First Mission

Seaman Gray Gibson

The largest warship the United Kingdom has ever sailed, the HMS Queen Elizabeth, is intended to cement the declining colonial power’s place in 21st century geopolitics and signal that London is a reliable partner for the United States, even as the UK has pulled out of other agreements, such as the European Union.

The British Royal Navy’s HMS Queen Elizabeth has linked up with a US aircraft carrier and amphibious assault ship for joint drills in the Gulf of Aden as the UK flagship continues its maiden patrol toward the South China Sea.

The British aircraft carrier, and its Dutch Royal Navy escort, the frigate Eversten, met up with the Ronald Reagan carrier strike group in the western Arabian Sea on Monday for a “large scale joint interoperability exercise,” according to a Pentagon news release.

Also sailing in the joint task force were a Duke-class frigate, two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, a Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser, and the Wasp-class landing helicopter dock USS Iwo Jima, itself a form of aircraft carrier, albeit also armed with thousands of US Marines and their amphibious assault equipment.

Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth ( R 08), front, and aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) operate in formation in the Gulf of Aden, July 12.

Together, the force could put nearly 150 aircraft into the air, many of them variants of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Some of the jets on the Queen Elizabeth are piloted by US Marines, which deployed with the warship on its first patrol, so that the warship will have a full complement of aircraft. London has only received a handful of the 48 F-35Bs that it has ordered.

According to the Pentagon release, the joint strike force’s “combined, bilateral surface, air and sub-surface exercise … focused on the full spectrum of maritime warfare operations, practicing anti-air warfare (AAW), anti-surface warfare (ASUW), and anti-submarine warfare (ASW) tactics and procedures.”

The drills are being carried out close to several important regions, including Yemen, where a Saudi-led coalition is locked in a six-year-long war with the Shiite Ansarullah movement; Somalia, where the US has been fighting the terrorist group al-Shabaab; and Ethiopia, where Washington has recently said the struggle by Ethiopian and Eritrean forces against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front amounts to “ethnic cleansing.” It’s also not far from Iran or Afghanistan, the latter of which First Sea Lord Admiral Tony Radakin noted in May the Queen Elizabeth’s aircraft could bomb if necessary.

The Queen Elizabeth is on its way to the Pacific Ocean, where it will be “flying the flag for Global Britain – projecting our influence, signalling our power, engaging with our friends, and reaffirming our commitment to addressing the security challenges of today and tomorrow,” as British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace described the deployment in April.

Based in Yokosuka, Japan, the Reagan is also typically confined to Pacific waters, but has come westward to provide additional cover for US troops amid the final withdrawal from Afghanistan, which is expected to be complete next month.

Sailors prepare an F/A-18F Super Hornet fighter jet, attached to the “Diamondbacks” of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 102, to launch from the flight deck of aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) during flight operations in the Arabian Sea, July 8.

With its signature dual command islands, the Queen Elizabeth isn’t quite the size of the massive Nimitz-class warship it was sailing alongside, but is still considered one of the most formidable warships afloat and significantly larger than any carrier previously used by the British Royal Navy.

“The aircraft carrier is the ultimate expression of global maritime power,” UK Royal Navy Commodore Steve Moorhouse, commander of the carrier’s strike group, said in the news release. “Queen Elizabeth, Ronald Reagan, and Iwo Jima symbolize the might of the US and UK partnership, and the ease with which our naval and air forces can combine here in the Gulf of Aden, or anywhere else in the world.”

However, heading to the Pacific, the Queen Elizabeth will soon be in the waters of a dangerous adversary: China’s People’s Liberation Army, which has long worked to perfect an arsenal of ultra-long-range anti-ship missiles and hypersonic weapons capable of overwhelming the carrier’s – or indeed, any warship’s – defenses and delivering a knockout blow.

While London has given its support to the sovereignty-challenging “Freedom of Navigation Operations” performed by the US and other nations in the South China Sea, Wallace said the carrier’s deployment was not intended to be “provocative,” but would indicate London’s willingness to “play an active role in shaping the international system of the 21st century.”

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This post originally posted here United Kingdom News

The storm is expected to make landfall Wednesday over the northern Florida Gulf Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center

Hurricane Elsa, which had been a tropical storm, is expected to move near or over parts of Florida’s western coast Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
“Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday,” NHS said in its 8 p.m. news advisory.
Thirty-three counties are under a state of emergency, Gov. Ron DeSantis said at a news conference. The Florida National Guard also activated 60 guardsmen to serve at the state’s Emergency Operations Center and Logistics Readiness Center.
“We’re anticipating a landfall probably between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m. tomorrow, somewhere again on the nature coast or Big Bend part of Florida,” DeSantis said. “There have not been any widespread evacuation orders.”
President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration for the state ahead of the storm. The declaration, which began Sunday, authorizes the Federal Emergency Management Agency to coordinate all disaster relief efforts in southern Florida.
Elsa’s center, with sustained winds of 75 mph, was over water about 100 miles south-southwest of Tampa as of 8 p.m. ET, the hurricane center said. John Antapasis, Tampa’s emergency coordinator, encouraged residents to stay indoors and avoid roadways Tuesday night.
A hurricane warning is in effect from Egmont Key near St. Petersburg in west-central Florida to the Steinhatchee River in northern Florida’s Big Bend region.
“The warm ocean waters give it that fuel for the engine to really fire back up again … (and) it could be near or at hurricane strength” when Elsa makes landfall, CNN meteorologist Derek Van Dam said.
A tropical storm warning — alerting people to expect tropical storm conditions including strong winds — is in effect for much of the rest of Florida’s west coast.
The Georgia coast from the mouth of St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound is also under a tropical storm warning, the advisory said. Gov. Brian Kemp issued a state of emergency Tuesday night that will expire on July 14.
Elsa’s outer bands also could drop rain on Florida’s eastern side, perhaps affecting areas such as the community of Surfside, where search and rescue teams still are working at the site of a deadly building collapse. Elsa’s approach prompted a controlled demolition Sunday of the remaining portion of the Champlain Towers South condo building.
As long as winds stay below 45 mph, search and rescue teams can continue looking for signs of life; if winds exceed 45 mph, teams are called off the rubble, according to Miami-Dade Fire Rescue spokesperson Erika Benitez.
A tornado watch was in effect for more than 12 million people in southern Florida until 11 p.m. ET Tuesday. This includes Tampa, Fort Myers, Miami, Surfside, St. Petersburg and Sarasota.
The major rain and storm surge threats are expected to be in western Florida.
About 3 to 8 inches of rain could fall from the Florida Keys to western parts of the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday — threatening flash flooding, the hurricane center said.
Storm surge warnings were in place for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach through the northern portions of the Big Bend region, with the highest surge expected to be between 3 and 5 feet from Englewood to the outlet for the Aucilla River — including Tampa Bay.
People in southern and western Florida have been preparing by filling sand bags, opening shelters, closing businesses and schools, and activating local emergency operations centers.
Cuba was getting heavy rainfall Tuesday morning from Elsa. Rainfall of 5 to 15 inches is expected through Tuesday night, threatening significant flash flooding and mudslides.
Elsa whipped the Keys on Tuesday morning with rain and sustained winds of 30-40 mph.

Residents and businesses prepare

Elsa, which briefly was at hurricane strength Friday and early Saturday to become the first hurricane of the season, made landfall Monday in Cuba and tore through the Cayman Islands, saturating both areas with heavy rain and strong winds and causing landslides and flooding.
Authorities across Florida offered free sandbags to residents to help prevent flooding and are encouraging people to prepare by stocking up on supplies and heeding local warnings.
At least four counties in the Tampa area — Hillsborough, Pinellas, Hernando and Manatee — opened shelters for residents, while others have activated emergency operations centers to prepare for the storm.
Determined visitors head to Sloppy Joe's bar while crossing a flooded Duval Street in Key West.
“You want to be prepared for anything,” a Pinellas County Emergency Operations Center employee told CNN affiliate WFTS. “You really never know.”
“We’ve had other storms in the past that seemed like nothing but they end up with a lot of flood damage,” the emergency official warned.
Manatee County could “have almost borderline terms of a hurricane,” US Rep. Vern Buchanan said.
“Please finalize your plans and secure your homes and get ready to sort of bunker down and ride out this storm,” said Manatee County Administrator Scott Hopes.
Tampa Mayor Jane Castor pleaded with city residents to stay home Tuesday evening.
“You don’t need to be out. Do not go out. We’re going to have a lot of rain, a lot of wind. Do not drive into water that you cannot see through, so that means don’t drive into water, period,” Castor said.
Busch Gardens in Tampa Bay planned to close “to ensure the safety of our ambassadors, guests and animals,” according to the park’s website. At this time, the venue is expected to reopen at noon Wednesday.
Tampa International Airport said it would close to commercial flights at 5 p.m. ET Tuesday, and to cargo flights at 10 p.m. It anticipated reopening Wednesday at 10 a.m.
In Fort Myers, the Southwest Florida International Airport said it would cancel flights Tuesday afternoon.
Sarasota Bradenton International Airport plans to close at 6:30 p.m. after the last commercial arrival scheduled for 5:30 pm, according to the airport’s website. The airport plans to resume normal operations Wednesday at 6 a.m.
Emma Barlow, 9, works with her mother Brandi Barlow to fill sandbags Tuesday in Middleburg.
People lined up Monday in Manatee and Hillsborough counties to fill free sandbags to help prevent flooding.
One new Florida resident told WFTS she’s never been in a tropical storm.
“This is our first experience. We got the notification that we could get sandbags, and we’re right on some water, so we just want to do everything that we can at this point,” the woman said.
Even some businesses are closing ahead of the storm.
Niall Bowen, owner of Old Town Bakery in Key West, will close his business Tuesday because the storm will impact his supply chain and deliveries, he told CNN affiliate WSVN.
“As far as the impact goes, I don’t think we’re going to have a major weather event,” Bowen said.

Into Georgia and the Carolinas later this week

The current forecast following landfall in western Florida has the storm moving to the northeast across the lowlands of Georgia, perhaps as a tropical storm, on Wednesday — and the Carolinas, perhaps as a tropical depression, on Thursday.
Tropical Storm Elsa battered parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday with heavy rain and high winds.
It could exit into the Atlantic on Thursday or Friday.
Elsa could then be a rainmaker for the extreme Eastern Seaboard until it pushes into the north Atlantic.

Author: Jason Hanna, Hollie Silverman and Amir Vera, CNN
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Saudi Arabia changes import rules from Gulf in challenge to UAE

Saudi Arabia changes import rules from GulfSaudi Arabia has announced the latest rule changes despite the fact that UAE is its second-biggest trade partner after China in terms of import value, based on recent Saudi trade data.

Saudi Arabia has amended its rules on imports from other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to exclude goods made in free zones or using Israeli input from preferential tariff concessions – in a challenge to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as the region’s trade and business hub.

Despite being close allies, Saudi Arabia and the neighbouring UAE are competing to attract investors and businesses. Their national interests have also increasingly diverged, such as in their relations with Israel and Turkey.

Furthermore, Saudi Arabia – the biggest importer in the region – is trying to diversify its economy and reduce its dependence on oil, while providing more jobs for its own citizens, a point also covered by the rule changes announced over the weekend.

Saudi Arabia will henceforth exclude from the GCC tariff agreement goods made by companies with a workforce made up of less than 25 percent of local people and industrial products with less than 40 percent of added value after their transformation process.

The ministerial decree published on the Saudi official gazette Umm al-Qura said all goods made in free zones in the region will not be considered locally made.

Free zones, a major driver of the UAE’s economy, are areas in which foreign companies can operate under light regulation, and where foreign investors are allowed to take 100 percent ownership in companies.

According to the decree, goods that contain a component made or produced in Israel or manufactured by companies owned fully or partially by Israeli investors or by companies listed in the Arab boycott agreement regarding Israel, will be disqualified.

The UAE and Israel signed a tax treaty last May as both sides work to spur on business development after normalising relations last year. Bahrain, another GCC member, has also normalised ties with Israel.

“The idea once was to create a GCC market, but now there’s the realisation that the priorities of Saudi Arabia and the UAE are very different,” said Amir Khan, senior economist at Saudi National Bank.

“This regulation is putting flesh on the bone of these political divergences,” he said.

In February, the Saudi government said it will stop giving state contracts to businesses that base their Middle East hubs in any other country in the region. That was another blow to Dubai, one of the UAE’s emirates, which has built its economy on its open-for-business credentials and the promise of a glitzy lifestyle for well-heeled expatriates.

Saudi Arabia has announced the latest rule changes despite the fact that the UAE is its second-biggest trade partner after China in terms of import value, based on recent Saudi trade data.

It is also a major re-exporting hub for foreign products to Saudi Arabia, including Turkish goods – which have been under an unofficial boycott by Riyadh.

The ministerial decree said companies with a local workforce of between 10 percent and 25 percent of the total could compensate for the difference by increasing the industrial added value in their products and vice versa. The added value should not be less than 15 percent, in any case, to benefit from the preferential tariff agreement, it added.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also faced off in the last few days about an OPEC Plus deal. The UAE opposed an agreement voted on Friday to raise output by some two million barrels per day from August to December 2021 and to extend remaining cuts to the end of 2022.

Author:
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Video shows fire in Gulf of Mexico after gas pipeline rupture

MEXICO CITY — Mexico’s state-owned oil company said Friday it suffered a rupture in an undersea gas pipeline in the Gulf of Mexico, sending flames boiling to the surface in the Gulf waters.

Petroleos Mexicanos said it had dispatched fire control boats to pump more water over the flames.

Pemex, as the company is known, said nobody was injured in the incident in the offshore Ku-Maloob-Zaap field.

The leak near dawn Friday occurred about 150 yards from a drilling platform. The company said it had brought the gas leak under control about five hours later.

But the accident gave rise to the strange sight of roiling balls of flame boiling up from below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico.

It was unclear how much environmental damage the gas leak and oceanic fireball had caused.

Miyoko Sakashita, oceans program director for the Center for Biological Diversity, wrote that “the frightening footage of the Gulf of Mexico is showing the world that offshore drilling is dirty and dangerous.”

Sakashita added, “These horrific accidents will continue to harm the Gulf if we don’t end offshore drilling once and for all.”

Copyright © 2021 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.

Author: AP
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What is the Gulf of Mexico 'dead zone' and how big will it be this summer

TEXAS (KXAN) — During the summer in the Gulf of Mexico, a ‘dead zone’ or hypoxic area forms where little to no oxygen in the water kills fish and other types of marine life.

What is the reason there’s so little oxygen?

According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the annual Gulf of Mexico dead zone is primarily caused by excess nutrient pollution from human activities in urban and agricultural areas throughout the Mississippi River watershed. When the excess nutrients reach the Gulf, they stimulate an overgrowth of algae which eventually die and decompose, depleting oxygen as they sink to the bottom. The resulting low oxygen levels near the bottom of the Gulf cannot support most marine life.

Some fish, shrimp and crab swim out of this area, but not all animals or fish can get away and the lack of oxygen stresses or kills them.

For the last few years, NOAA has issued a forecast for the size of the hypoxic area leading into summer. Summer 2021 is expected to have a ‘dead zone’ of around 4,880 square miles. That’s actually slightly smaller than the five-year average size of 5,400 square miles.

The largest hypoxic zone was in 2017 when 8,776-squre-miles of the Gulf of Mexico had little to no oxygen. These measurements have been mapped since 1985, but this is only the fourth year NOAA has made a ‘dead zone’ forecast.

“Understanding the effects of hypoxia on valuable Gulf of Mexico resources has been a long-term focus of NOAA’s research,” said Nicole LeBoeuf, acting director of NOAA’s National Ocean Service. “These forecasting models inform us of the potential magnitude of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone that might impact living marine resources and coastal economies.”

According to NOAA, river discharge in May and the associated nutrient load to the Gulf of Mexico has been shown to be a major contributing factor to the size of the dead zone which forms each summer. In May 2021, discharge in the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers was about 2% below the long-term average between 1980 and 2020. The United States Geological Survey estimates that this smaller-than-average river discharge carried 90,500 metric tons of nitrate and 15,600 metric tons of phosphorus into the Gulf of Mexico in May alone. These nitrate loads were about 32% below the long-term average, and phosphorus loads were about 9% below the long-term average.

The USGS uses more than 3,000 stream gauges and sensors to measure the nutrients leading into the Gulf of Mexico to help get an idea the impact on the hypoxic zone.

While agricultural sources are the largest nutrient sources to the Gulf, urban areas, waste treatment and with natural sources also contribute significant nutrients to the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricanes and tropical storms can impact the size of the hypoxic zone, as those storms mix ocean waters and add oxygen to de-oxygenated areas. Generally the improvement is just temporary as those waters start losing oxygen soon after storms move on.

NOAA will survey the Gulf of Mexico to confirm the size of this year’s dead zone and test how accurately the ‘dead zone’ forecast was.

The Interagency Mississipi River and Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force has set a goal to reduce the hypoxic zone to a five-year average measured size of 1,900 square miles. In order for this goal to be reached, nutrient reducing methods along the Mississippi River watershed need to work.

“The Hypoxia Task Force plays a critical role in managing nutrient loads in the Mississippi River Basin to reduce over time the size of the hypoxic zone,” said John Goodin, director of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Office of Wetlands, Oceans and Watersheds. “Through state leadership in implementing nutrient reduction strategies, support from EPA and other federal agencies, and partnerships with basin organizations and research partners, we will continue to tackle the challenge of Gulf hypoxia. This annual forecast will continue to inform our collective efforts.”

Author: Nick Bannin
This post originally appeared on KXAN Austin

Tropical depression likely to form in Gulf Thursday night or Friday

June 16

7 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now says “a tropical depression is likely to form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico.”

Even if a tropical depression does not form on Thursday, it is possible we will get our first forecast cone for the potential storm. The National Hurricane Center will issue forecasts for a developing system that is expected to become a tropical depression or storm if it is within 48 hours from making landfall.

June 16

1 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center is maintaining the 70% chance for development over the next 2 days of the system in the Bay of Campeche. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the system on Thursday, especially if it begins to show signs of organization. Once a closed low level circulation with thunderstorms surrounding it is located, the system will be designated a tropical depression or storm. Please keep up with the latest since the forecast could change quickly.

June 16

7 a.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now gives the tropical low in the Gulf a 70% chance of developing over the next 2 days and a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 5 days.

The potential formation zone extends northward toward the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. Heavy rains could reach the U.S. Gulf Coast as early as Friday.

Impacts here are still “to be determined” based on the exact track the low takes. Once a well-defined low level circulation spins up, we should have a better idea of where it will track and what impacts we’ll get here.

June 15

11:00 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now gives the tropical low in the Gulf a 50% chance of developing over the next 2 days and an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 5 days.

June 15

12:30 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now gives the tropical low in the Gulf an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.

June 15

7 a.m. update
The National Hurricane Center gives the tropical low in the Gulf a high (70%) chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.

June 14

9:45 p.m. update
Tropical Storm Bill has formed off the East Coast. It is no threat to land.

June 14

2 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now gives the tropical low in the Gulf a high (70%) chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.

The potential formation zone has been extended northward toward the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. Heavy rains could reach the U.S. Gulf Coast as early as Friday.

Impacts here are still “to be determined” based on the exact track the low takes. Once a well-defined low level circulation spins up, we should have a better idea of where it will track and what impacts we’ll get here.

June 14

11 a.m. update
Tropical Depression Two forms off the coast of North Carolina. Additional strengthening is expected and this could become Tropical Storm Bill later tonight. This system should begin to weaken by Tuesday night and is expected to dissipate on Wednesday.

8 a.m. update
We continue to monitor a tropical low in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to meander around the Bay of Campeche for the first half of the week, then lift northward toward the U.S. Gulf Coast during the second half of the week. The National Hurricane Center keeps the 5-day developments odds at 60% through Saturday evening.

At this time it is still too soon to determine exactly how we will be impacted by it, but if we get any impacts, they will most likely be felt in the Friday to Sunday window of Father’s Day weekend. A tropical depression or storm could form, but a hurricane looks unlikely given the high wind shear expected over the northwestern Gulf.

If it tracks toward Louisiana or farther east, we would be left with hot, dry weather. If it tracks toward the Upper Texas Coast or farther west, we could see some significant rains from it. Once we see where the low pressure consolidates and becomes more organized, then we will get a better feel for where it will track and what our impacts will be.

For now we advise you to stay in awareness mode as the week progresses.

There are two other areas the National Hurricane Center has tagged for tropical development. An area of low pressure off the East Coast has a 70% chance for tropical development during the next 48 hours. This system will be competing to grab the next name on the Atlantic hurricane list: Bill.

A strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa has a 20% chance of tropical development during the next 5 days.

June 13

7 p.m. update
We continue to monitor a tropical low in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to meander around the Bay of Campeche for the first half of the week, then lift northward toward the U.S. Gulf Coast during the second half of the week. The National Hurricane Center keeps the 5-day developments odds at 50% through Friday evening.

At this time it is still too soon to determine exactly how we will be impacted by it, but if we get any impacts, they will most likely be felt in the Friday to Sunday window of Father’s Day weekend. A tropical depression or storm could form, but a hurricane looks unlikely given the high wind shear expected over the northwestern Gulf. The next name on the list is Bill.

If it tracks toward Louisiana or farther east, we would be left with hot, dry weather. If it tracks toward the Upper Texas Coast or farther west, we could see some significant rains from it. Once we see where the low pressure consolidates and becomes more organized, then we will get a better feel for where it will track and what our impacts will be.

For now we advise you to stay in awareness mode as the week progresses.

June 13

7 a.m. update
There’s no major change in the modeling or expectations for our Gulf system, but we’re now up to a 50% chance of development over the next 5 days, and there’s high uncertainty as far as any potential impacts to Southeast Texas.

It’s not something you should be overly concerned with at the moment, but it remains an area we’ll continue to monitor.

June 12

2 p.m. update
We are continuing to monitor an area of showers and storms in the Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 40% chance over the next 5 days. Slow development will be a possibility over the next few days but it is still way too early to know what impacts, if any, we could see along the Gulf Coast from this disturbance.

7 a.m. update
The area we are monitoring in the Gulf now has a 40% chance of development over the next 5 days. It’s too early for specifics on exact impacts, but the moisture will gradually lift north. For now it’s just something we will be keeping an eye on.

READ MORE: Here’s today’s hour-by-hour forecast and an outlook for the next ten days

June 11

9 a.m. update
The National Hurricane Center has tagged an area of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche with a 20% chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.

Slow development will be possible as this system lifts to the north to northwest. It is still too early to determine what impacts our region could see. Residents along the upper Texas coast should keep an eye on the tropics.

June 10

9 a.m. update
No imminent threat for tropical development over the next 5 days.

However, the Climate Prediction Center says conditions may become more favorable for tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico late next week. Resident along the upper Texas coast should keep an eye on the tropics.

June 9

8 a.m. update
Formation chances with the disturbance in the southern Caribbean continues to be at a 10% chance over the next five days. However, residents along the upper Texas coast should keep up with the tropics. The Climate Prediction Center expects conditions to become more favorable for tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico late next week.

June 8

6 p.m. update
Formation chances with the disturbance in the southern Caribbean continues to be at a 20% chance over the next five days. However, residents along the upper Texas coast should keep up with the tropics. The Climate Prediction Center says conditions may become more favorable for tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico late next week.

2 p.m. update
Formation chance with the disturbance in the southern Caribbean has dropped to a 20% chance over the next five days.

10 a.m. update
Some gradual development will be possible with a tropical disturbance in the southern Caribbean over the next few days. Formation chance is just at 30% over the next 5 days, we’ll continue to monitor it.

Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy rainfall across northern Colombia and portions of Central America later this week and into the weekend.

June 7

Our tropical disturbance in the southern Caribbean remains at just a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days, we’ll continue to monitor it.

June 6

There’s a 20% (low) chance of tropical development over the next 5 days in an area just east of Central America in the southern Caribbean Sea. An area of low pressure could develop by the end of the week and may try to gradually strengthen as it moves northwest. We’ll continue to monitor this area.

June 5

No tropical development is expected in the tropical Atlantic in the next 5 days.

However, NOAA is giving us an early heads up with “high confidence” that one or more tropical systems may spin up in the western Caribbean Sea between June 9th and June 15th.

Why?
Because a large area of low pressure known as the “Central American Gyre” is expected to spin up, and these often will produce one or more smaller low pressure systems that can break off and develop into tropical depressions and storms. There’s no way to know exact details at this time and there’s certainly nothing to worry about right now, but we do want you to at least be casually aware of the possibility just in case.

June 4

No tropical development is expected in the tropical Atlantic in the next 5 days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Blanca has weakened to a post-tropical cyclone and is expected to weaken even further as it heads westward into a drier environment with increasing wind shear and cooler waters.

Just east of Blanca, an area of disturbed area is being monitored for potential tropical development. The formation chance is at 60% during the next 5 days. A tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest well off the coast of Mexico.

June 3

No tropical development is expected in the next 5 days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Blanca is now a tropical depression and is expected to weaken even further as it heads westward into a drier environment with increasing wind shear and cooler waters.

June 2

No tropical development is expected in the next 5 days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Blanca continues to move west away from Mexico. It should remain as a tropical storm through midweek but should weaken sometime on Thursday down to a tropical depression.

June 1

Today is the official start of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. No tropical development is expected in the next 5 days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Blanca continues to move west away from Mexico. It should remain as a tropical storm through midweek but should weaken sometime on Thursday down to a tropical depression.

May 31

No tropical development is expected as the Atlantic hurricane season kicks off tomorrow.

However, in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression Two-E is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours as it drifts south of Mexico. This system is expected to remain below hurricane strength and eventually fall apart as it moves over cooler water.

A tropical wave is just west of Two-E and has a slim chance for tropical development during the next five days.

May 26

There are no areas of concern for development for the next 5 days in the Atlantic, Gulf or Caribbean.

May 24

Ana has dissipated and no tropical development is expected during the next five days.

May 23

11 p.m. update
Ana is now a post-tropical cyclone and should dissipate Monday as it moves northeast farther out into the Atlantic.

3 p.m. update
Ana has now been downgraded to a tropical depression with 35 mph winds. Ana is forecast to become a remnant low by tonight as it moves northeast out farther into the Atlantic.

12 p.m. update
Ana is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic as it churns around 425 miles northeast of Bermuda. Ana’s maximum sustained winds were around 40 mph Sunday morning and was moving northeast at approximately 14 mph. An increase in forward speed was expected in the next day or so. Tropical storm-force winds extended outward up to 35 miles and there are no impacts to land. Ana is expected to weaken and dissipate by Monday.

5 a.m. update
Still plenty of moisture in SE Texas from the disturbance that moved through early Saturday morning, with light rain expected in Houston and heavier rain to our southwest. Elsewhere, 340 miles to the northeast of Bermuda our first named storm, Ana, continues to gradually move northeast over open water. Ana will not make landfall anywhere, and will dissipate early next week.

May 22

11 p.m. update
The tropical disturbance that brought us our rain chance today continues to lift to the north.

Subtropical Storm Ana formed early Saturday and is now making its way northeast out to sea in the Atlantic. It is currently 270 miles northeast of Bermuda and is moving northeast at 9 mph. Ana currently has sustained wind speeds of 45 mph but is expected to weaken over the next 24 hours… eventually dissipating by Monday.

1 p.m. update
Our tropical disturbance responsible for bringing showers to SE Texas today continues to spin through the Hill Country. The moisture that it continues to pump into our area has produced widely scattered showers, especially west of I-45.

SubTropical Storm Ana, our first named storm of the season, is lifting away from Bermuda and poses no threat to land.

10 a.m. update
Subtropical storm Ana formed in the Atlantic Ocean early Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center. Ana was located about 200 miles northeast of Bermuda Saturday morning with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The system was expected to continue its slow and erratic motion, and then dissipate in a few days, forecasters said.

Here in the Houston area, the Gulf tropical disturbance continues to weaken and move to the north-northwest. Outer rain bands will continue to impact the Houston area today. A wind advisory has been extended for the Bolivar Peninsula, coastal Jackson, Matagorda, Brazoria and Galveston Island until 4 p.m. Coastal flood advisories continue for Chambers, coastal Brazoria, Galveston and Harris counties until 7 a.m. Sunday.

7 a.m. update
The National Weather Service has issued flood warnings for several rivers and streams across the region as rain-swollen banks continue to be impacted by scattered showers today. Impacts from the disturbance continue to include locally heavy rainfall, breezy conditions along the coast, elevated tides and marine hazards. The center of the system should push northwest throughout the day. The highest rain chances through noon should be along and west of the Brazos River. Those rain chances will expand across the area later today.

5 a.m. update
The disturbance in the Gulf moved inland near Port Lavaca, and the National Hurricane Center doesn’t expect any more development. Locally, our impacts remain unchanged from prior updates, scattered showers and storms with breezy 30-40mph wind gusts possible, especially along the coast. The NWS has issued a Coastal Flood Warning through 7 a.m. for our coastal communities.

In a much different part of the world, northeast of Bermuda, we now have our first named storm: Subtropical Storm Ana has formed. This storm will have no direct impact on land, and is only notable for being our first named storm of the year, arriving before hurricane season officially begins.

May 21

1 p.m. update
The NHC is now giving the disturbance in the Gulf a 30% chance of development (becoming a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm).

The impacts in our area will be minor regardless of development. We can expect scattered showers and storms along with wind gusts over 30 mph overnight and through Saturday, with rain tapering off from east to west on Sunday.

Still, if it makes landfall in Texas at tropical depression or storm strength, it’ll be the first in recorded history to do so before June 1, the customary start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

1 p.m. update
A large area of thunderstorms in the western Gulf is drifting northwest towards the Texas coast.

Conditions are slightly favorable for development and the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 60% chance. Whether it develops or not, it’ll give us at least scattered, heavy downpours overnight and through the day on Saturday.

High rain rates along with the slow movement of the storms means some flooding will be possible. Gusty winds and coastal flooding may also be an issue near the coast.

May 20, 2021

According to the latest NOAA outlook, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will be busier than normal, but it’s unlikely to be as crazy as 2020’s record-shattering year.

They’re expecting 13-20 tropical storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, although storms can form before and after those dates.

During hurricane season, ABC13 meteorologists will provide daily tropical weather updates on this page.

RADAR MAPS:
Southeast Texas
Houston
Harris County

Galveston County
Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties
Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties
Brazoria/Matagorda Counties

During hurricane season, remain prepared and make sure you download our ABC13 Houston app!

Copyright © 2021 KTRK-TV. All Rights Reserved.

Author: Travis Herzog

This post originally appeared on ABC13 RSS Feed

Dry air wrapping around low in Gulf brings heat for Thursday

Dry air wrapping around low in Gulf

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — Dry air wrapping around the low in the Gulf brings us hot and sunny weather for Thursday. Temperatures will start in the mid 70s then warm into the mid 90s on an easterly breeze. While we can’t rule out a stray shower or storm, your rain chance is less than 20%.

LIVE: Check live radar from ABC13

We are also monitoring the Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical development. Heavy rains wrapping around this low could reach the U.S. Gulf Coast by Friday.

READ MORE: Monitoring for potential tropical development late this week, development chances at 80%

WATCH: How to survive TX heat

Tropical development odds now up to 80% for low in Gulf

June 15

11:00 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now gives the tropical low in the Gulf a 50% chance of developing over the next 2 days and an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 5 days.

June 15

12:30 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now gives the tropical low in the Gulf an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.

June 15

7 a.m. update
The National Hurricane Center gives the tropical low in the Gulf a high (70%) chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.

The potential formation zone extends northward toward the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. Heavy rains could reach the U.S. Gulf Coast as early as Friday.

Impacts here are still “to be determined” based on the exact track the low takes. Once a well-defined low level circulation spins up, we should have a better idea of where it will track and what impacts we’ll get here.

June 14

9:45 p.m. update
Tropical Storm Bill has formed off the East Coast. It is no threat to land.

June 14

2 p.m. update
The National Hurricane Center now gives the tropical low in the Gulf a high (70%) chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.

The potential formation zone has been extended northward toward the Texas and Louisiana coastlines. Heavy rains could reach the U.S. Gulf Coast as early as Friday.

Impacts here are still “to be determined” based on the exact track the low takes. Once a well-defined low level circulation spins up, we should have a better idea of where it will track and what impacts we’ll get here.

June 14

11 a.m. update
Tropical Depression Two forms off the coast of North Carolina. Additional strengthening is expected and this could become Tropical Storm Bill later tonight. This system should begin to weaken by Tuesday night and is expected to dissipate on Wednesday.

8 a.m. update
We continue to monitor a tropical low in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to meander around the Bay of Campeche for the first half of the week, then lift northward toward the U.S. Gulf Coast during the second half of the week. The National Hurricane Center keeps the 5-day developments odds at 60% through Saturday evening.

At this time it is still too soon to determine exactly how we will be impacted by it, but if we get any impacts, they will most likely be felt in the Friday to Sunday window of Father’s Day weekend. A tropical depression or storm could form, but a hurricane looks unlikely given the high wind shear expected over the northwestern Gulf.

If it tracks toward Louisiana or farther east, we would be left with hot, dry weather. If it tracks toward the Upper Texas Coast or farther west, we could see some significant rains from it. Once we see where the low pressure consolidates and becomes more organized, then we will get a better feel for where it will track and what our impacts will be.

For now we advise you to stay in awareness mode as the week progresses.

There are two other areas the National Hurricane Center has tagged for tropical development. An area of low pressure off the East Coast has a 70% chance for tropical development during the next 48 hours. This system will be competing to grab the next name on the Atlantic hurricane list: Bill.

A strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa has a 20% chance of tropical development during the next 5 days.

June 13

7 p.m. update
We continue to monitor a tropical low in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to meander around the Bay of Campeche for the first half of the week, then lift northward toward the U.S. Gulf Coast during the second half of the week. The National Hurricane Center keeps the 5-day developments odds at 50% through Friday evening.

At this time it is still too soon to determine exactly how we will be impacted by it, but if we get any impacts, they will most likely be felt in the Friday to Sunday window of Father’s Day weekend. A tropical depression or storm could form, but a hurricane looks unlikely given the high wind shear expected over the northwestern Gulf. The next name on the list is Bill.

If it tracks toward Louisiana or farther east, we would be left with hot, dry weather. If it tracks toward the Upper Texas Coast or farther west, we could see some significant rains from it. Once we see where the low pressure consolidates and becomes more organized, then we will get a better feel for where it will track and what our impacts will be.

For now we advise you to stay in awareness mode as the week progresses.

June 13

7 a.m. update
There’s no major change in the modeling or expectations for our Gulf system, but we’re now up to a 50% chance of development over the next 5 days, and there’s high uncertainty as far as any potential impacts to Southeast Texas.

It’s not something you should be overly concerned with at the moment, but it remains an area we’ll continue to monitor.

June 12

2 p.m. update
We are continuing to monitor an area of showers and storms in the Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane Center gives this disturbance a 10% chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 40% chance over the next 5 days. Slow development will be a possibility over the next few days but it is still way too early to know what impacts, if any, we could see along the Gulf Coast from this disturbance.

7 a.m. update
The area we are monitoring in the Gulf now has a 40% chance of development over the next 5 days. It’s too early for specifics on exact impacts, but the moisture will gradually lift north. For now it’s just something we will be keeping an eye on.

READ MORE: Here’s today’s hour-by-hour forecast and an outlook for the next ten days

June 11

9 a.m. update
The National Hurricane Center has tagged an area of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche with a 20% chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.

Slow development will be possible as this system lifts to the north to northwest. It is still too early to determine what impacts our region could see. Residents along the upper Texas coast should keep an eye on the tropics.

June 10

9 a.m. update
No imminent threat for tropical development over the next 5 days.

However, the Climate Prediction Center says conditions may become more favorable for tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico late next week. Resident along the upper Texas coast should keep an eye on the tropics.

June 9

8 a.m. update
Formation chances with the disturbance in the southern Caribbean continues to be at a 10% chance over the next five days. However, residents along the upper Texas coast should keep up with the tropics. The Climate Prediction Center expects conditions to become more favorable for tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico late next week.

June 8

6 p.m. update
Formation chances with the disturbance in the southern Caribbean continues to be at a 20% chance over the next five days. However, residents along the upper Texas coast should keep up with the tropics. The Climate Prediction Center says conditions may become more favorable for tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico late next week.

2 p.m. update
Formation chance with the disturbance in the southern Caribbean has dropped to a 20% chance over the next five days.

10 a.m. update
Some gradual development will be possible with a tropical disturbance in the southern Caribbean over the next few days. Formation chance is just at 30% over the next 5 days, we’ll continue to monitor it.

Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy rainfall across northern Colombia and portions of Central America later this week and into the weekend.

June 7

Our tropical disturbance in the southern Caribbean remains at just a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days, we’ll continue to monitor it.

June 6

There’s a 20% (low) chance of tropical development over the next 5 days in an area just east of Central America in the southern Caribbean Sea. An area of low pressure could develop by the end of the week and may try to gradually strengthen as it moves northwest. We’ll continue to monitor this area.

June 5

No tropical development is expected in the tropical Atlantic in the next 5 days.

However, NOAA is giving us an early heads up with “high confidence” that one or more tropical systems may spin up in the western Caribbean Sea between June 9th and June 15th.

Why?
Because a large area of low pressure known as the “Central American Gyre” is expected to spin up, and these often will produce one or more smaller low pressure systems that can break off and develop into tropical depressions and storms. There’s no way to know exact details at this time and there’s certainly nothing to worry about right now, but we do want you to at least be casually aware of the possibility just in case.

June 4

No tropical development is expected in the tropical Atlantic in the next 5 days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Blanca has weakened to a post-tropical cyclone and is expected to weaken even further as it heads westward into a drier environment with increasing wind shear and cooler waters.

Just east of Blanca, an area of disturbed area is being monitored for potential tropical development. The formation chance is at 60% during the next 5 days. A tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest well off the coast of Mexico.

June 3

No tropical development is expected in the next 5 days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Blanca is now a tropical depression and is expected to weaken even further as it heads westward into a drier environment with increasing wind shear and cooler waters.

June 2

No tropical development is expected in the next 5 days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Blanca continues to move west away from Mexico. It should remain as a tropical storm through midweek but should weaken sometime on Thursday down to a tropical depression.

June 1

Today is the official start of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. No tropical development is expected in the next 5 days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Blanca continues to move west away from Mexico. It should remain as a tropical storm through midweek but should weaken sometime on Thursday down to a tropical depression.

May 31

No tropical development is expected as the Atlantic hurricane season kicks off tomorrow.

However, in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression Two-E is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours as it drifts south of Mexico. This system is expected to remain below hurricane strength and eventually fall apart as it moves over cooler water.

A tropical wave is just west of Two-E and has a slim chance for tropical development during the next five days.

May 26

There are no areas of concern for development for the next 5 days in the Atlantic, Gulf or Caribbean.

May 24

Ana has dissipated and no tropical development is expected during the next five days.

May 23

11 p.m. update
Ana is now a post-tropical cyclone and should dissipate Monday as it moves northeast farther out into the Atlantic.

3 p.m. update
Ana has now been downgraded to a tropical depression with 35 mph winds. Ana is forecast to become a remnant low by tonight as it moves northeast out farther into the Atlantic.

12 p.m. update
Ana is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic as it churns around 425 miles northeast of Bermuda. Ana’s maximum sustained winds were around 40 mph Sunday morning and was moving northeast at approximately 14 mph. An increase in forward speed was expected in the next day or so. Tropical storm-force winds extended outward up to 35 miles and there are no impacts to land. Ana is expected to weaken and dissipate by Monday.

5 a.m. update
Still plenty of moisture in SE Texas from the disturbance that moved through early Saturday morning, with light rain expected in Houston and heavier rain to our southwest. Elsewhere, 340 miles to the northeast of Bermuda our first named storm, Ana, continues to gradually move northeast over open water. Ana will not make landfall anywhere, and will dissipate early next week.

May 22

11 p.m. update
The tropical disturbance that brought us our rain chance today continues to lift to the north.

Subtropical Storm Ana formed early Saturday and is now making its way northeast out to sea in the Atlantic. It is currently 270 miles northeast of Bermuda and is moving northeast at 9 mph. Ana currently has sustained wind speeds of 45 mph but is expected to weaken over the next 24 hours… eventually dissipating by Monday.

1 p.m. update
Our tropical disturbance responsible for bringing showers to SE Texas today continues to spin through the Hill Country. The moisture that it continues to pump into our area has produced widely scattered showers, especially west of I-45.

SubTropical Storm Ana, our first named storm of the season, is lifting away from Bermuda and poses no threat to land.

10 a.m. update
Subtropical storm Ana formed in the Atlantic Ocean early Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center. Ana was located about 200 miles northeast of Bermuda Saturday morning with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The system was expected to continue its slow and erratic motion, and then dissipate in a few days, forecasters said.

Here in the Houston area, the Gulf tropical disturbance continues to weaken and move to the north-northwest. Outer rain bands will continue to impact the Houston area today. A wind advisory has been extended for the Bolivar Peninsula, coastal Jackson, Matagorda, Brazoria and Galveston Island until 4 p.m. Coastal flood advisories continue for Chambers, coastal Brazoria, Galveston and Harris counties until 7 a.m. Sunday.

7 a.m. update
The National Weather Service has issued flood warnings for several rivers and streams across the region as rain-swollen banks continue to be impacted by scattered showers today. Impacts from the disturbance continue to include locally heavy rainfall, breezy conditions along the coast, elevated tides and marine hazards. The center of the system should push northwest throughout the day. The highest rain chances through noon should be along and west of the Brazos River. Those rain chances will expand across the area later today.

5 a.m. update
The disturbance in the Gulf moved inland near Port Lavaca, and the National Hurricane Center doesn’t expect any more development. Locally, our impacts remain unchanged from prior updates, scattered showers and storms with breezy 30-40mph wind gusts possible, especially along the coast. The NWS has issued a Coastal Flood Warning through 7 a.m. for our coastal communities.

In a much different part of the world, northeast of Bermuda, we now have our first named storm: Subtropical Storm Ana has formed. This storm will have no direct impact on land, and is only notable for being our first named storm of the year, arriving before hurricane season officially begins.

May 21

1 p.m. update
The NHC is now giving the disturbance in the Gulf a 30% chance of development (becoming a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm).

The impacts in our area will be minor regardless of development. We can expect scattered showers and storms along with wind gusts over 30 mph overnight and through Saturday, with rain tapering off from east to west on Sunday.

Still, if it makes landfall in Texas at tropical depression or storm strength, it’ll be the first in recorded history to do so before June 1, the customary start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

1 p.m. update
A large area of thunderstorms in the western Gulf is drifting northwest towards the Texas coast.

Conditions are slightly favorable for development and the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 60% chance. Whether it develops or not, it’ll give us at least scattered, heavy downpours overnight and through the day on Saturday.

High rain rates along with the slow movement of the storms means some flooding will be possible. Gusty winds and coastal flooding may also be an issue near the coast.

May 20, 2021

According to the latest NOAA outlook, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will be busier than normal, but it’s unlikely to be as crazy as 2020’s record-shattering year.

They’re expecting 13-20 tropical storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, although storms can form before and after those dates.

During hurricane season, ABC13 meteorologists will provide daily tropical weather updates on this page.

RADAR MAPS:
Southeast Texas
Houston
Harris County

Galveston County
Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties
Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties
Brazoria/Matagorda Counties

During hurricane season, remain prepared and make sure you download our ABC13 Houston app!

Copyright © 2021 KTRK-TV. All Rights Reserved.

Author: Travis Herzog

This post originally appeared on ABC13 RSS Feed

Truss targets mega trade deal with Gulf States as she plots course for post-Brexit bonanza

The move comes as the Government concludes “phase one” talks with Australia and New Zealand over a free trade deal. The international trade secretary told the Daily Telegraph: “The Gulf is a definite target and we are working on the approach to [the] Gulf. We are in discussions with the GCC and I hope that we’ll be able to say more about that soon.”
The UK already enjoys a profitable economic relationship with the six Gulf states.

In 2019, the UK’s bilateral trade with the GCC was worth £45bn – the fourth largest amount after the EU, US and China.

Sources also told the Daily Telegraph that the UK is close to sealing a deal with the Abu Dhabi-based sovereign wealth fund Mubadala.

This potentially could see as much as £5bn of investment into the UK from the Middle East.

Khaldoon Al Mubarak, the chief executive of Mubadala, is believed to have held talks in London and an agreement could be finalised by the end of June.

The International trade secretary is also pushing for a major overhaul of the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

READ MORE: Brexit trade deal worth £100bn could be signed in months

“If we’re in a position of having to compete against products that are artificially subsidised [and] dumped on our market, then that will not give people faith in free trade.”

She added: “It’s very important that we deal with those market-distorting practices.”

The WTO will hold a ministerial conference in late November, the first in almost three years.

Author:
This post originally appeared on Daily Express :: UK Feed

Gulf disturbance moves inland, Ana forms in the Atlantic near Bermuda

May 22

7 a.m. update
The National Weather Service has issued flood warnings for several rivers and streams across the region as rain-swollen banks continue to be impacted by scattered showers today. Impacts from the disturbance continue to include locally heavy rainfall, breezy conditions along the coast, elevated tides and marine hazards. The center of the system should push northwest throughout the day. The highest rain chances through noon should be along and west of the Brazos River. Those rain chances will expand across the area later today.5 a.m. update
The disturbance in the Gulf moved inland near Port Lavaca, and the National Hurricane Center doesn’t expect any more development. Locally, our impacts remain unchanged from prior updates, scattered showers and storms with breezy 30-40mph wind gusts possible, especially along the coast. The NWS has issued a Coastal Flood Warning through 7 a.m. for our coastal communities.

In a much different part of the world, northeast of Bermuda, we now have our first named storm: Subtropical Storm Ana has formed. This storm will have no direct impact on land, and is only notable for being our first named storm of the year, arriving before hurricane season officially begins.

May 21

1 p.m. update
The NHC is now giving the disturbance in the Gulf a 30% chance of development (becoming a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm).

The impacts in our area will be minor regardless of development. We can expect scattered showers and storms along with wind gusts over 30 mph overnight and through Saturday, with rain tapering off from east to west on Sunday.

Still, if it makes landfall in Texas at tropical depression or storm strength, it’ll be the first in recorded history to do so before June 1, the customary start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

1 p.m. update
A large area of thunderstorms in the western Gulf is drifting northwest towards the Texas coast.

Conditions are slightly favorable for development and the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 60% chance. Whether it develops or not, it’ll give us at least scattered, heavy downpours overnight and through the day on Saturday.

High rain rates along with the slow movement of the storms means some flooding will be possible. Gusty winds and coastal flooding may also be an issue near the coast.

May 20, 2021

According to the latest NOAA outlook, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season will be busier than normal, but it’s unlikely to be as crazy as 2020’s record-shattering year.They’re expecting 13-20 tropical storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, although storms can form before and after those dates.

During hurricane season, ABC13 meteorologists will provide daily tropical weather updates on this page.

RADAR MAPS:
Southeast Texas
Houston
Harris County

Galveston County
Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties
Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties
Brazoria/Matagorda CountiesDuring hurricane season, remain prepared and make sure you download our ABC13 Houston app!

Copyright © 2021 KTRK-TV. All Rights Reserved.

Author: Travis Herzog

This post originally appeared on ABC13 RSS Feed