Tag Archives: MODERATE

China warns of economic uncertainty despite moderate recovery in Q2

The pace of China’s economic recovery rose modestly in the second quarter after signs of sluggishness in the world’s second-biggest economy had stoked expectations of greater policy support.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, China’s gross domestic product grew 1.3 per cent in the three months to the end of June, up from a revised 0.4 per cent expansion in the previous quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday. Economists had predicted quarter-on-quarter growth of 1 to 1.2 per cent, according to polls by Bloomberg and Reuters.

Second quarter GDP was 7.9 per cent higher than a year earlier, compared with year-on-year growth of 18.3 per cent in the first quarter. The high growth in the first quarter reflected the halt in economic activity in early 2020 after the Covid-19 pandemic erupted in central China and forced the government to impose a nationwide lockdown.

The NBS data release comes at a tense juncture for China’s economic planners as they try to balance financial stability with growth.

Liu Aihua, a spokesperson for the NBS, told reporters in Beijing that the economy had continued to “recover steadily” but warned that the rebound was “unbalanced”.

“We should also be aware that the coronavirus continues to mutate globally and external instabilities and uncertainties abound,” she said.

Signs of downward pressure on China’s recovery have prompted speculation that Beijing will unleash more policy support to shore up business confidence and employment and lift spending.

Issuance of special purpose bonds, used by local governments to fund infrastructure investments, was 50 per cent lower over the first five months of the year, compared with the same period in 2020.

Wang Jun, economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said the trend was worrying. “Fiscal policy needs to be loosened,” he said. “Local government debt issuance and infrastructure investment are closely related.”

The Chinese government has targeted full-year growth of at least 6 per cent, which most analysts expect will be easily reached as the economic recovery accelerates.

“The annual growth goal is in reach,” said Chaoping Zhu at JPMorgan Asset Management. “However, long-term credit growth has remained weak as the government deploys policies to control leverage.”

Li Keqiang, the Chinese premier, reiterated this week the government’s longstanding pledge to refrain from “flood-like stimulus” measures. Any such loosening threatens to undercut policies introduced to reduce leverage and deal with a series of bond defaults late last year. These problems are especially acute among state-owned enterprises in central and northern provinces, sparking concerns about financial system instability.

China, the first big economy to move out of a lockdown last year, has been watched closely by other economies wrestling with fragile recoveries and the effects of the crisis.

The country’s exports have for much of this year outperformed market expectations, boosted by the US and parts of Europe easing social distancing measures and returning to growth.

But the Covid-19 Delta variant’s rapid spread has cast doubt over external demand in the second half of the year. China has also kept its borders closed as it continues to pursue a “zero-Covid” approach to the pandemic.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, economist with Capital Economics, said China’s pandemic-linked export boom “appears to have peaked”, and noted that on a quarter-on-quarter basis the GDP growth rate was still the fourth weakest since rates were first published in 2010.

“All told, activity in China remained strong,” he said. “But with output already above its pre-virus trend, the economy is struggling to gain ground at its usual pace.”

Manufacturers across Asia have also been blindsided by sharp price increases and sudden supply constraints hitting important resources used by industry. Shipping delays and raw material shortages have also driven fears over disruptions.

According to the NBS, China’s industrial production grew 8.3 per cent year-on-year in June, down from 8.8 per cent in May.

Growth in fixed asset investments, which tracks spending in crucial areas such as infrastructure and property, was up 12.6 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2021.

Mixed sentiment over China’s domestic consumption has also raised some concerns over the health of the services sector.

Qu Hongbin, HSBC chief economist, expected more “targeted” support for China’s small- and medium-sized enterprises. These businesses account for more than 85 per cent of urban employment and have recovered more slowly compared with other parts of the economy.

“SMEs would be the focus,” Qu said.

Retail sales rose 12.1 per cent in June. That compared with 12.4 per cent in May and 17.7 per cent in April, the NBS data showed, highlighting continued pressure on domestic consumer spending and an uneven economic recovery.

David Chao, global market strategist at Invesco, said segments of the Chinese economy were “being left behind”.

“The retail sales number is perhaps the best indicator of how the common household is doing in China,” Chao said.

Yue Su, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, added that consumer demand “is still the weak link”.

“China’s GDP data continues to indicate an uneven recovery,” she said. “Retail sales haven’t recovered [and] incomes are not improving as fast as the economy.”

Additional reporting by Xinning Liu in Beijing and Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong

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PROJECTIONS OF NICEAN TRADITIONALISM AMONG MODERATE ARIANS IN THE IV CENTURY (1)

Theological aspect

The Eastern bishops, supporters of the semi-Arian party, most of whom were members of the Council of Philippopolis in 343 with the subsequent supreme ecclesiastical forums, express precisely the pre-Nicene conservatism hostile to the term “omousios,” an innovation included in the Creed. the Ecumenical Council. This is one of the main reasons and explanations for the high intensity of church councils in the IV century due to the many anti-Trinitarian heresies and false teachings, in particular the teachings of Arius and his derivatives. Heresies seem to be multiplying, which in turn multiplies the convening of pro and contra fairs, each of them.

Among the bishops gathered in Philippopolis, many came from the Eusevian coalition. For the followers of Eusebius of Nicomedia, there were no longer any theological problems with Arius after he returned from exile with the permission of the emperor. Constantine I at the cost of a religion in which his most extreme views were excluded. The main postulate in their doctrine was the semi-Arian view that the Son had a substance similar to the substance of the Father (omiusios) contrary to the view of the Aecians /in the name of the Antiochian deacon Aetius, who revived classical Arianism /and the Eunomians/ epi in the name of Euphnius. Kizik in Moesia/, according to which no news on the question of the substantiality of the Son can be accepted, because the Son is of a completely different substance from that of the Father /heterousios/ and is an anomios from His Father. Acacius of Caesarea is a representative of pure classical Arianism with his talent and erudition. He is known as the leader of the Eusevian party at a series of councils: in Antioch  /341/, in Philippopolis /343/, in Milan /355/, in Antioch /358/. At the synods of 359 and 360, respectively in Seleucia and Constantinople, he became the progenitor of a new sectarian branch – that of the Acacians (cf. Dictionnaire de Theologie catholique – DTC, Fasc. II, P., 1909, col. 290). The latter preached semi-Arian views, adhering to the term “omios”, in the sense of similar, whence comes the other name by which they are known in church history “omians”. The technical term “omios” meant similar to the Father not in substance, but referred to a similarity in the will (cf. DTC, Fasc. II, P., 1909, col. 290-292; Lacan M.-F ., Petite Encyclopedie Religieuse, Fayard, Paris, 1973, p. 163). The heads of many ancient episcopal bishops in Thrace (Rule 6 of the First Ecumenical Council determined five provinces in Thrace with the capital Heraclia or Heraclea, Heraclia, with its own metropolitan, and Balsamon in the interpretation of Rule 3 of the Second Ecumenical Council testified that from ancient times the bishop of the city of Byzantium – Byzantium was appointed by the Thracian Metropolitan until the adoption of this canon, with which he was equated in advantages and honor with the Roman bishop) in today’s Bulgaria are among the signatories of the decisions of the Eastern Council in Philippopolis (one of the first early Christian centers and an episcopal settlement not only on the territory of today’s Bulgaria, but also in the world): Ep. Eutychius of Philippopolis (+ ca. 347), successor of the disciple of St. Apostle Paul – St. Apostle Hermas /cf. Rom. 16:14/, one of the 70 apostles of Christ; ep. Demophilus of Beroe (now Stara Zagora), successor of the first bishop – the student of ap. Paul, Carp /cf. 2 Tim.4: 13/; in Odessos (now Varna) and in the Thracian city of Heraclea the first bishop was the apostolic disciple martyr. Amplius /cf. Rom. 16: 8/, whence they take part and sign the Eastern Encyclical of Philippopolis, ep. Theodore of Heraclea (hence the Arian bishop Sabin of Heraclia, who left us the valuable source from the IV century for the councils of the Arians “Synagogues of the Councils”) and bishop Timothy of Anhialo (Ankila). It is difficult to accept that all these hierarchs, who accepted their episcopal chairs from the earliest Christian epoch by apostolic succession, have completely and at the same time departed from the correct teaching of Christ.

Rather, they were strongly attached to the ancient religion before the Nicene Creed and reacted sharply to the innovations made at the time, as well as to attempts to establish papal supremacy at the Council of Serdica. The perspective of the decisions of Philippopolis was based on the canonical order established by the Ecumenical Council of Nicaea and the local Council of Antioch, while the decisions of Serdica are in the perspective of the bishop’s obligation to defend the pure Nicene faith.

Author: Petar Gramatikov
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