Tag Archives: trading

VORTECS Report: While Bitcoin gained just 10% since Jan 3, this crypto trading strategy netted 2,150% ROI

Bitcoin may be suffering through a succession of negative news stories, but some crypto investors are still celebrating major gains in 2021’s altcoin bull market.

Since January 3 this year, Cointelegraph Markets Pro has been live-testing 42 separate automated strategies based on the proprietary VORTECS™ algorithm developed in partnership with The TIE, a data analytics firm.

Let’s not be humble about this: VORTECS™ has crushed it.

Of those 42 strategies, every single one has beaten the return on investment (ROI) delivered by Bitcoin for hodlers who refuse to part with their BTC.

And even when compared to holding an evenly-weighted basket of the top 100 altcoins, 88% of those strategies come out ahead.

What’s more, the most successful strategies — whether based on the time between an entry position and a hypothetical exit, or exiting a position based on crossing a new score threshold — have delivered in excess of 2,000% returns as of May 22 — even after multiple pullbacks in the crypto asset class. In fact, the most successful of all (Buy 80 / Sell 80) has generated returns of 2,150%.

That compares extremely favorably with the strategy of holding Bitcoin (10% ROI) or the basket of altcoins (226% ROI) since January 3.

In the chart above, which is based on exiting a position at an arbitrary time (24 hours, 48 hours, 96 hours or 168 hours) all VORTECS™ strategies beat Bitcoin… and only one failed to beat the altcoin basket.

In this second chart, based on exiting at a second score threshold, all VORTECS™ strategies beat holding Bitcoin, and only four failed to beat the altcoin basket.

So what is VORTECS™ — and why is it consistently outperforming the wider crypto market?

What is VORTECS?™

The VORTECS™ Score is an algorithmic metric derived from historical analysis of crypto markets.

For each one of the ~200 crypto assets supported by Cointelegraph Markets Pro, the algorithm is hunting for moments in time that resemble the current marketscape — 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

Specifically, it’s looking for patterns that have consistently led to significant changes in price in the past.

Those patterns include a variety of factors: Volume, Outlook, RealPrice, Tweet Volume, Elevation, Confidence, and Sentiment… or VORTECS™ for short.

Volume: A measure of how much of an asset is traded across supported exchanges.

Outlook: A measure of whether the current market conditions are favorable or not, compared with historically-similar conditions.

RealPrice: A composite price derived from an average of prices across relevant exchanges, discounting outliers based on low volume.

Tweet Volume: A measure of the absolute and relative number of tweets about an asset over the past 24 hours.

Elevation: A measure of how far up or down an asset’s price moved following historically-similar market conditions to those observed currently.

Confidence: The degree to which current conditions are similar to historic conditions, with higher confidence also including the consistency of asset price moves following those conditions.

Sentiment: The positivity or negativity of the chatter on Twitter surrounding the crypto asset, derived from a complex proprietary algorithm developed by The TIE.

The algorithm combines all of this raw data into a VORTECS™ Score, which is designed to identify the general health of the market for a particular crypto asset. A high score suggests that in the past, conditions similar to those we see right now have often led to increases in the price of that asset. The higher the score, the more confident the algorithm is that these scenarios have been consistent.

Like any trading algorithm, that doesn’t mean it’s a crystal ball — in fact, it’s almost exactly the opposite. Whereas fortune tellers look into the future, VORTECS™ looks into the past.

But it turns out that examining the right elements of history provides keen insights for crypto traders who are seeking an edge.

How Markets Pro measures the VORTECS™ Score’s performance

Cointelegraph Markets Pro testing tracks the price of an asset when the score crosses a threshold (for example, a score of 85) and then measures the price again when it crosses a second threshold (which could be another score, or could be measured in hours). The difference between the first and second prices is the gain or loss that the algorithm tracks… and there’s more detail on that here.

So even though a human couldn’t trade exactly this way, by applying a consistent set of standards it’s possible to establish whether an algorithm is operationally successful or not. And the verdict is very clear: VORTECS™ has consistently and significantly outperformed the crypto market as a whole since live-testing began earlier this year.

And perhaps just as importantly is the fact that even with a major pullback in the overall value of the crypto markets, which lost close to a trillion dollars in value at the low point this week, the performance of all the VORTECS™ strategies tested continued to outperform the benchmark currency, Bitcoin, by a significant margin.

Using the VORTECS™ Score

Remember, the score is not a prediction of how an asset price WILL change over time, but an analysis of how asset prices HAVE changed over time when faced with similar market conditions.

So the VORTECS™ Score, while it is weighted to take account of the size of asset price change in the past, will not tell you HOW MUCH an asset may change.

It will also not tell you WHEN it will change — in fact, the algorithm is deliberately fuzzy on time, meaning that it is normalized and smoothed to ensure that abrupt outliers (such as a sudden viral tweet) don’t abnormally affect the overall trend.

While the algorithm is generally oriented to a 12-72 hour timeframe, testing revealed that efforts to “time the market” precisely introduced an element that was not supported by historical data.

So let’s take a look at an example score of 85.

This is a high score which means that there is some combination of these factors:

  • The algorithm has found market conditions in the past that look similar to current market conditions
  • Those historical conditions often led to an INCREASE in asset price over the next 12-72 hours, approximately
  • The price changes in the past have been significant
  • The algorithm maintains a high level of confidence that the set of conditions it’s looking at are similar enough to suggest that the overall direction of this asset’s price is currently bullish, or positive.

The 1,500+ crypto traders in the Cointelegraph Markets Pro Discord group, which is available exclusively to members, have used these scores in a wide variety of ways to enhance their understanding of the current market health for dozens of crypto assets.

And while massive ROI numbers like 2,150% are at the extremes of VORTECS™ success, it is worth noting that the mean ROI from all score-based strategies is 642%, while the mean ROI from all time-based strategies is 638%… both of which are significantly higher than the benchmarks set by BTC (10%) and altcoins (226%).

Cointelegraph Markets Pro is available exclusively to members on a monthly basis at $ 99 per month, or annually with two free months included. It carries a 14-day money-back policy, to ensure that it fits the crypto trading and investing research needs of subscribers, and members can cancel anytime.

Important X

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions. Full terms and conditions.

Author: Cointelegraph By Cointelegraph
This post originally appeared on Cointelegraph.com News

Pokémon Trading Card Scalpers Are Causing Some Ugly Scenes Right Now

Pokémon

Earlier in May, Target stores located in America temporarily suspended sales of various trading cards including Pokémon ones.

It was already fairly obvious tensions were high when a 35-year-old man was assaulted in a Target parking lot for his own purchase, and now video footage has emerged of adults swarming an aisle in another store, and clearing out entire shelves of cards within seconds. Note: this footage contains explicit language.

Pokémon News @TrainerINTEL “If you are lucky enough to spot some #Pokemon cards in the wild, please be respectful and leave some for other Trainers. Everybody deserves to enjoy the hobby and not have it ruined by scalpers.”

This video was originally shared by tcg_grassi on Instagram and shows just how “in-demand” trading cards are in certain locations right now. In saying this, a lot of viewers on social media point out that these people are likely to be scalpers rather than legitimate fans – further stating how the cards and packs will probably end up on sites such as eBay for top dollar.

Many Pokémon Trading Card fans are now calling for more stores to remove the cards from aisles, and instead sell them behind the counter or online as well as limit purchases. Although Target suspended in-store sales, cards can still be purchase from its online shop.

[email protected] “Stores should have a policy where you can only purchase two packs at a time, or perhaps have the cards stocked behind the counter.”

What do you make of the video above? Surprised to see people acting this way over trading cards? Leave a comment down below and stay safe out there.

Author:
This post originally appeared on Nintendo Life | Latest News

Trading strategies, explained

Day traders invest based on complex strategies in a timeframe of minutes to hours, but at the end of their day, they’re out of the market, forgoing potential gains to avoid losses.

At first glance, day trading is pretty simple: You buy and sell cryptocurrencies many times over the course of a day, seeking to make a profit on the (usually) small minute-to-minute, hour-to-hour price fluctuations. It is, essentially, the opposite of hodling.

The reality is day trading is very complex because so many things affect the price — too many to factor them all in. So, you need strategies within it, relying on specific indicators, technical analyses, research sources, risk management strategies, and profit and loss tolerance. Which means access to good information and speed is vital. You also need to take fees into account if you’re making a high volume of trades.

Day trading is high-stress, but also comes with a cut-off. Day traders generally set a defined “day” in the 24-hour crypto market, and close out their positions by that time. So while it does come with high risks, wild overnight swings are not among them. While that means missing out on big gains, it also means avoiding big losses.

Author: Cointelegraph By Connor Sephton
This post originally appeared on Cointelegraph.com News

The rise of DEX robots: AMMs push for an industrial revolution in trading

Centralized exchanges play an important role in the cryptocurrency industry. While their decentralized exchange counterparts have been growing in popularity and usage since 2020, the overwhelming majority of crypto trading volume is still concentrated on centralized exchanges. 

The supremacy of CEXs can be clearly observed in the size and popularity of trading platforms like Binance and Coinbase, which are now so recognizable and mainstream that Coinbase has recently become the first crypto company to be listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.

Acting as a necessary bridge between fiat and crypto, centralized exchanges provide unparalleled convenience. Nevertheless, industry leaders often see these types of exchanges as one of crypto’s single points of failure. Sergej Kunz, co-founder of 1inch Network — a DeFi platform offering automated market makers and other related services — believes that AMMs will be the main competition for centralized exchanges. He told Cointelegraph:

“In the next four to five years, the DeFi industry will grow a lot. We will eliminate intermediaries, such as banks, and replace them with DeFi. In the upcoming years, 1inch is going to be ready to compete with centralized exchanges for users who swap assets a few times a day.”

Another factor fueling the interest in DEXs is the security concerns. Although malicious attacks on exchanges have become less frequent, exchanges have repeatedly proven that they are vulnerable to hacks and information leaks.

More decentralized alternatives aim to provide an answer for those concerns, and one way to do it is through the use of the automated market maker on exchanges.

The history of AMMs: From zero to hero

AMMs are the latest prominent breed of DEX protocols. They do not rely on order books like regular exchanges but instead use mathematical formulas to calculate the price of assets.

AMMs also provide liquidity from different pools, excluding the need to have another user on the other side willing to trade. Trading is done by interacting with smart contracts or peer-to-contracts, which provide the price and liquidity necessary to execute trades.

The new AMM-based DEXs greatly facilitate exchanges between crypto assets and have surged in popularity ever since the DeFi summer of 2020. The concept was first introduced by Bancor back in 2017. Vijay Garg, chief marketing officer of MakiSwap — a cross-chain AMM — explained how AMMs are revolutionizing the world of trading, telling Cointelegraph:

“AMM is going to drive the entire financial ecosystem, as they work independently without holding private keys of users and lie under less regulatory framework. Moreover, with enough liquidity, it’s faster, easy, convenient and cheap for users to trade. AMMs fundamentally alter how users swap cryptocurrencies.”

Hailed as the first true decentralized AMM, Ethereum-based Uniswap launched in late 2018 and, within several years, took the crypto world by storm due to its simple user interface and broad listing system. Right now, Uniswap is holding on to the top spot as the world’s leading DEX in terms of trading volume.

Uniswap spurred multiple “spinoffs,” one of which was SushiSwap, an AMM that launched a vampire attack and ultimately solidified itself as Uniswap’s main rival. Although SushiSwap was the first to use this method, it has since become a common practice, as protocols constantly try to leech liquidity from one another in “AMM wars.”

AMM protocols make up almost all of the total volume on DEXs and are considered an instrumental tool for the DeFi ecosystem. However, with innovation, there are always new problems and challenges that arise.

As such, new types of AMMs have now started to bloom and have been diversifying the space, where different exchanges cater to different user needs. Alex Lee, a developer at ZKSwap — a privacy-centric AMM — told Cointelegraph:

“DeFi and traditional finance aren’t much different, but DeFi requires lesser trust. AMMs, in particular, brought changes to the current financial landscape, and this can be observed in its growth.”

The different types of AMMs

Each AMM tends to have its own unique price algorithms to harness liquidity in various ways and from different sources. In the current DeFi landscape, the three most dominant and distinct AMM protocols are Uniswap, Curve and 1inch.

As the second-largest DEX in the world, Curve inherited the core design of Uniswap but specializes as the first AMM optimized for stable asset pools. As a result of its architecture, Curve minimizes the risk of impermanent losses, solves the problem of limited liquidity, and offers one of the lowest trading rates across all DEXs.

Another popular trend in the world of AMMs is aggregation. The 1inch Network has pioneered this technique to have a dominant market share in the area. This method seeks to allow its users to save on fees when making large trades on low-liquidity pools, avoiding high slippage by routering the transaction through multiple liquidity pools. Kunz told Cointelegraph: “Through our Pathfinder algorithm, deals are split across multiple DEX pools, ensuring users will be able to find the best swap rates.”

AMM downsides and risks

One of the downsides inherent to the current AMMs is impermanent loss. Whenever liquidity pool tokens fluctuate in value, an arbitrage opportunity is created that will incur losses to the pool. The larger the fluctuation, the worse the losses will be. Therefore, AMMs work better if token pairs have similar values.

Although Curve minimizes this risk, the new version of Bancor seeks to prevent the problem completely. Allowing the creation of AMMs with pegged liquidity, Bancor v2.1 was designed to mitigate slippage and help solve the issue of impermanent losses. Nate Hindman, head of growth at Bancor Protocol, told Cointelegraph:

“The Bancor protocol uses its elastic supply token, BNT, to co-invest in its pools and earn fees that the protocol uses to compensate for IL when an LP eventually withdraws their stake. An LP must be in a pool for 100 days or more to receive full protection from IL. This means that even if a token moons in price, an LP is entitled to withdraw the full value of their tokens as if they held them in their wallet.”

There are other disadvantages to trading with AMMs. On Ethereum, high gas fees have become an issue for the typical retail trader. Still, many exchanges have started to adopt layer-one and layer-two solutions to accommodate traders looking for smaller-size swaps. As Kunz stated: “The scaling of blockchain is a missing piece for further growth of the DeFi sector, but we already see some layer-two solutions by Optimism and Matter Labs, which are hopefully going to solve this in the coming months of 2021.”

Limited liquidity in some assets can also cause issues. Still, perhaps one of the most significant problems in the world of AMM trading is front-running bots that can take advantage of trades made by unwary buyers/sellers, creating faster transactions to profit from these traders.

Aleksandras Gaška, CEO of Blank Wallet — a privacy and user-centric wallet — told Cointelegraph that this issue is affecting the common AMM user. “Although tech-savvy investors can decrease their slippage or follow a DCA strategy to avoid front-running bots by buying in a few, smaller transactions, the only foolproof strategy is to allow users to use silent transactions.”

The need for privacy in DeFi

Privacy has always been a central topic in the cryptocurrency world. For example, Bitcoin and Ethereum are pseudonymous; they are also public in their nature. All transactions and addresses are exposed on the blockchain and can be viewed by anyone.

This level of transparency creates a danger for users sharing their public addresses. As such, privacy in the world of decentralized finance is becoming a highly demanded commodity. Speaking about this need, Lee told Cointelegraph:

“Market-level information should be transparent to all participants while still preserving individual privacy. And privacy is the basic right of an individual. It’s critical to keep in mind that any decentralized financial system worth having must respect the financial ownership of the individuals it serves.”

As previously mentioned, front-running bots are a big issue in the DeFi sector, and they are a direct result of the lack of privacy found in the DeFi sector, where all transactions are exposed on the blockchain. Therefore, the use of privacy-centric wallets can mitigate this issue.

The Future of AMMs

On May 6, Uniswap released its long-anticipated v3 update. Aiming to maximize capital efficiency, the upgrade was a success and, in just one day, recorded more than twice the volume that v2 saw in its first month. Despite the achievement, many users are calling the launch a flop due to the complex user interface and soaring gas fees, which are even higher than v2’s.

While most of the DeFi ecosystem resides on the Ethereum blockchain, there is a mass migration of projects, like 1inch Network joining Binance Smart Chain and other rival DApp blockchains. Uniswap and other ERC-20-based protocols might be reliant on the success of Eth2, but the future looks to be in interoperability.

It’s tempting to assume AMMs protocols will be responsible for all on-chain liquidity in the future. However, DeFi is still a maturing technology, and its innovation is fast-paced. Even if AMMs can resolve their limitations, regulatory frameworks and new technologies might present threats to their dominance.

Author: Cointelegraph By António Madeira
This post originally appeared on Cointelegraph.com News

Pound euro exchange rate up but trading in 'quiet manner' – should you buy travel money?

The pound[1] to euro[2] exchange rate is trading in a “quiet manner” according to experts. It may be up this morning on Thursday but remains within range – and shows little sign of shifting beyond this. Looking ahead at today, new data is unlikely “to move the needle significantly.”
Brown added: “Today’s UK retail sales number is unlikely to move the needle significantly, meaning we may again tread water into the weekend.”

Coronavirus continues to prove a barometer for sterling’s movements.

The success of the UK’s vaccine rollout has done much to boost GBP.

George Vessey UK Currency Strategist for Western Union Business Solutions has shared his insight on how the vaccine rate across Europe has impacted the exchange rate.

“As market participants continue to follow rising infections and restrictions in Europe potentially disrupting the UK’s recovery roadmap, recent tensions regarding access to coronavirus vaccinations have also been on the radar and negatively impacted risk sentiment,” he explained.

DON’T MISS

“Threats by the EU to halt exports of vaccines have caused a stir, not just amongst UK officials but some EU member states worry that tighter export restrictions risk damaging the EU’s reputation as a reliable source within the global medical supply chain.

“However, on Wednesday night both the UK and EU moved to calm the building tensions ahead of today’s European Council meeting on the subject.”

“From a market perspective, if Europe gets hold of more vaccines and the UK’s access is blocked, this could be deemed Euro-positive.”

Vessey added: “GBP/EUR has slipped from 13-month highs and is on track for its largest weekly fall in 2021.”

So what does this mean for your holidays and travel money?

Post Office Travel is currently offering a rate of €1.1159 over £400, €1.1321 for over £500, or €1.1379 for over £1,000.

While it may be tempting to buy holiday money while rates are good, it is inadvisable to buy them while there’s still so much uncertainty over foreign travel this summer.

Travel abroad is currently illegal with sizeable fines coming into force from Monday for those who jet off without “reasonable excuse.”

What’s more, quarantine and Covid tests are mandatory upon arriving in the UK.

Experts advise waiting until any volatility simmers down.

James Lynn, co-CEO and co-founder of travel card Currensea, said: “It may be tempting to take out foreign currency in anticipation of a future holiday, while the exchange rate is favourable.

“However, I would advise against this. Market movements are often more marginal in reality than they appear.

“’

“Once we are allowed to travel again, this will signify the end of the COVID bump and I anticipate this will mean the Pound has improved even more significantly.

“On top of this, when it comes to your consumer rights, using a travel card will always be a safer and cheaper option than using cash.”

References

  1. ^ pound (www.express.co.uk)
  2. ^ euro (www.express.co.uk)

Oil trading is bigger contributor to Switzerland’s GDP than tourism

Oil and other commodity trading have a much larger share in the gross domestic product (GDP) of Switzerland than its tourism sector, according to data from the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs cited by Bloomberg.

Some of the biggest independent commodity traders in the world, including Vitol, Glencore, Trafigura, and Gunvor, have either their headquarters or large offices in Switzerland, also because some Swiss cantons have low-tax regimes.  

According to the data from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, commodity trading accounted for 4.8 percent of the Swiss GDP in 2018, much more than the tourism sector, which represented 2.9 percent of GDP in that year. This 4.8-percent contribution of the commodity trading industry is higher than previous estimates of around four percent.  
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Back in 2018, the commodity trading industry in Switzerland generated combined revenues of $ 33 billion, according to the data quoted by Bloomberg.

In the past year, the extreme volatility in the oil market helped some of the biggest oil trading groups based in Switzerland to generate record revenues and profits.

Trafigura, for example, delivered record core earnings in what became its strongest trading year ever due to the extreme oil market swings earlier in 2020.

In its annual report for 2020, covering the financial year ended on September 30, Trafigura booked exceptionally strong financial results, mostly thanks to its core oil and petroleum trading business. The commodity trader’s net profit was the highest since 2013, while the gross profit and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) were the highest on record.  
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The biggest commodity traders typically profit from a glut in oil markets as they store oil to sell at higher prices in the future. In the second quarter of 2020, the oversupply on the market reached record highs as global oil demand crashed in the pandemic, and Saudi Arabia and Russia briefly fought a price war for market share, which also contributed to the glut and to the oil price collapse.

This article was originally published on Oilprice.com

RT